Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against any Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, aligning closely with CME FedWatch Tool odds of roughly 71% for steady federal funds rates through year-end at the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. This positioning reflects the Fed's April 29 decision to hold rates unchanged for a third straight meeting amid resilient Q1 GDP growth of 2% annualized and stable 4.3% unemployment, despite hotter-than-expected April CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—driven by a 3.8% monthly energy surge tied to Iran war disruptions. Hawkish revisions from firms like Bank of America cite persistent inflation pressures offsetting cut hopes, with the June FOMC meeting as the next key catalyst for policy signals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$1,080,220 Vol.
$1,080,220 Vol.
Sim
$1,080,220 Vol.
$1,080,220 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against any Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, aligning closely with CME FedWatch Tool odds of roughly 71% for steady federal funds rates through year-end at the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. This positioning reflects the Fed's April 29 decision to hold rates unchanged for a third straight meeting amid resilient Q1 GDP growth of 2% annualized and stable 4.3% unemployment, despite hotter-than-expected April CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—driven by a 3.8% monthly energy surge tied to Iran war disruptions. Hawkish revisions from firms like Bank of America cite persistent inflation pressures offsetting cut hopes, with the June FOMC meeting as the next key catalyst for policy signals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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