The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial has sharply lifted trader confidence in a “No Prison Time” outcome, now implied at 79.3 percent. Jurors deadlocked after just two days of deliberations on the rape charge tied to Jessica Mann, leaving prosecutors to weigh whether to pursue a fourth trial in the long-running #MeToo case. Weinstein is already serving a 16-year California sentence for a separate rape conviction that remains under appeal, and any additional New York time could run consecutively or concurrently depending on judicial rulings. His declining health and ongoing appeals add further uncertainty, while the mistrial itself removes the immediate risk of a new conviction that might have pushed total exposure toward 20–30 years or more. Traders appear focused on the next few weeks, when any decision on retrial or sentencing consolidation could reshape the odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTempo de prisão de Harvey Weinstein?
Tempo de prisão de Harvey Weinstein?
Sem tempo de prisão 79.4%
<5 anos 5.4%
20-30 anos 4.2%
5-10 anos 4.0%
$991,244 Vol.
$991,244 Vol.
31 dez 2025
Sem tempo de prisão
79%
<5 anos
5%
5-10 anos
4%
10-20 anos
3%
20-30 anos
4%
Mais de 30 anos
2%
Sem tempo de prisão 79.4%
<5 anos 5.4%
20-30 anos 4.2%
5-10 anos 4.0%
$991,244 Vol.
$991,244 Vol.
31 dez 2025
Sem tempo de prisão
$349,074 Vol.
79%
<5 anos
$131,330 Vol.
5%
5-10 anos
$79,813 Vol.
4%
10-20 anos
$158,943 Vol.
3%
20-30 anos
$199,610 Vol.
4%
Mais de 30 anos
$72,473 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial has sharply lifted trader confidence in a “No Prison Time” outcome, now implied at 79.3 percent. Jurors deadlocked after just two days of deliberations on the rape charge tied to Jessica Mann, leaving prosecutors to weigh whether to pursue a fourth trial in the long-running #MeToo case. Weinstein is already serving a 16-year California sentence for a separate rape conviction that remains under appeal, and any additional New York time could run consecutively or concurrently depending on judicial rulings. His declining health and ongoing appeals add further uncertainty, while the mistrial itself removes the immediate risk of a new conviction that might have pushed total exposure toward 20–30 years or more. Traders appear focused on the next few weeks, when any decision on retrial or sentencing consolidation could reshape the odds.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Volume
$991,244Data de Término
31 dez 2025Mercado Aberto
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial has sharply lifted trader confidence in a “No Prison Time” outcome, now implied at 79.3 percent. Jurors deadlocked after just two days of deliberations on the rape charge tied to Jessica Mann, leaving prosecutors to weigh whether to pursue a fourth trial in the long-running #MeToo case. Weinstein is already serving a 16-year California sentence for a separate rape conviction that remains under appeal, and any additional New York time could run consecutively or concurrently depending on judicial rulings. His declining health and ongoing appeals add further uncertainty, while the mistrial itself removes the immediate risk of a new conviction that might have pushed total exposure toward 20–30 years or more. Traders appear focused on the next few weeks, when any decision on retrial or sentencing consolidation could reshape the odds.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$991,244Data de Término
31 dez 2025Mercado Aberto
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial has sharply lifted trader confidence in a “No Prison Time” outcome, now implied at 79.3 percent. Jurors deadlocked after just two days of deliberations on the rape charge tied to Jessica Mann, leaving prosecutors to weigh whether to pursue a fourth trial in the long-running #MeToo case. Weinstein is already serving a 16-year California sentence for a separate rape conviction that remains under appeal, and any additional New York time could run consecutively or concurrently depending on judicial rulings. His declining health and ongoing appeals add further uncertainty, while the mistrial itself removes the immediate risk of a new conviction that might have pushed total exposure toward 20–30 years or more. Traders appear focused on the next few weeks, when any decision on retrial or sentencing consolidation could reshape the odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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