Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the current HLE frontier to 65% and 64.7% respectively on verified leaderboards as of mid-September 2026, reflecting gains from enhanced reasoning architectures, chain-of-thought scaling, and targeted training on expert-level multi-step problems. This positions Anthropic ahead of Meta’s Muse Spark series at 62% and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 variants near 58-59%, underscoring competitive pressure across labs to close the gap on graduate-level knowledge and calibration benchmarks. With three-plus months remaining, further gains hinge on new model drops, tool-augmented inference, and refinements to HLE-Verified subsets, though the benchmark’s design continues to limit rapid saturation compared with earlier tests like MMLU. Trader sentiment tracks these incremental capability jumps closely amid ongoing uncertainty around exact year-end resolution criteria.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMaior pontuação no Último Exame da Humanidade em 2026?
Maior pontuação no Último Exame da Humanidade em 2026?
$71,625 Vol.
31 dez 2026
60%+
52%
65%+
29%
70%+
15%
75%+
11%
80%+
7%
90%+
5%
$71,625 Vol.
60%+
$40,843 Vol.
52%
65%+
$16,633 Vol.
29%
70%+
$6,392 Vol.
15%
75%+
$3,602 Vol.
11%
80%+
$1,710 Vol.
7%
90%+
$2,445 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the current HLE frontier to 65% and 64.7% respectively on verified leaderboards as of mid-September 2026, reflecting gains from enhanced reasoning architectures, chain-of-thought scaling, and targeted training on expert-level multi-step problems. This positions Anthropic ahead of Meta’s Muse Spark series at 62% and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 variants near 58-59%, underscoring competitive pressure across labs to close the gap on graduate-level knowledge and calibration benchmarks. With three-plus months remaining, further gains hinge on new model drops, tool-augmented inference, and refinements to HLE-Verified subsets, though the benchmark’s design continues to limit rapid saturation compared with earlier tests like MMLU. Trader sentiment tracks these incremental capability jumps closely amid ongoing uncertainty around exact year-end resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado Aberto: Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$71,625Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the current HLE frontier to 65% and 64.7% respectively on verified leaderboards as of mid-September 2026, reflecting gains from enhanced reasoning architectures, chain-of-thought scaling, and targeted training on expert-level multi-step problems. This positions Anthropic ahead of Meta’s Muse Spark series at 62% and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 variants near 58-59%, underscoring competitive pressure across labs to close the gap on graduate-level knowledge and calibration benchmarks. With three-plus months remaining, further gains hinge on new model drops, tool-augmented inference, and refinements to HLE-Verified subsets, though the benchmark’s design continues to limit rapid saturation compared with earlier tests like MMLU. Trader sentiment tracks these incremental capability jumps closely amid ongoing uncertainty around exact year-end resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$71,625Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the current HLE frontier to 65% and 64.7% respectively on verified leaderboards as of mid-September 2026, reflecting gains from enhanced reasoning architectures, chain-of-thought scaling, and targeted training on expert-level multi-step problems. This positions Anthropic ahead of Meta’s Muse Spark series at 62% and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 variants near 58-59%, underscoring competitive pressure across labs to close the gap on graduate-level knowledge and calibration benchmarks. With three-plus months remaining, further gains hinge on new model drops, tool-augmented inference, and refinements to HLE-Verified subsets, though the benchmark’s design continues to limit rapid saturation compared with earlier tests like MMLU. Trader sentiment tracks these incremental capability jumps closely amid ongoing uncertainty around exact year-end resolution criteria.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions