Current numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate maximum temperatures in Guangzhou on August 13 will likely reach the mid-30s Celsius, driven by the persistent influence of the western Pacific subtropical high and typical August subtropical monsoon conditions with high humidity and urban heat effects. Consensus forecasts cluster around 35–37°C, with convective thunderstorms expected to potentially cap peaks near 36°C through cloud cover and precipitation. This positioning explains the market-implied odds favoring 36°C (44.5%), followed by 35°C and 37°C, as traders weigh model runs showing limited day-to-day variability. Updated guidance and real-time surface observations tomorrow will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.