Recent forecasts for Istanbul on August 25 converge on a daily maximum near 29–30 °C under partly cloudy skies and moderate northeasterly winds. Numerical models (GFS, ECMWF) indicate the peak will occur in the early afternoon before onshore flow strengthens, limiting further warming. Minor differences among runs—chiefly in low-level moisture and cloud fraction—account for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 26–30 °C bins, each near 50 %. Historical late-August climatology places the typical high at 28–29 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above the seasonal baseline yet well below recent heat-wave peaks. With only two days until resolution and no major synoptic shift expected, traders appear to be weighting the consensus mid- to upper-20s range while allowing room for small forecast adjustments from the final model cycles.