Persistent marine layer and steady onshore flow from the cool Pacific Ocean are the dominant factors capping San Francisco's afternoon highs near 70°F on August 12, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on the 70-71°F bin at 42.5% implied probability. NOAA and AccuWeather model guidance, reflecting typical August climatology of 68-70°F at downtown and airport stations, shows limited ensemble spread that favors this narrow range over warmer 72-73°F outcomes. Recent observations confirm moderate southwesterly winds and stratus persistence that suppress radiative heating, while historical analogs indicate rare exceedances above 75°F under similar synoptic patterns. Updated forecast runs and real-time surface data will refine resolution criteria tied to official NWS maximum temperature reports.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em São Francisco no dia 12 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em São Francisco no dia 12 de agosto?
70-71°F 42%
72-73°F 36%
68-69°F 14%
74-75°F 7%
NOVO
$21,894 Vol.
NOVO
$21,894 Vol.
12 ago 2026
63°F ou menos
1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
4%
68-69°F
14%
70-71°F
42%
72-73°F
36%
74-75°F
7%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F ou mais
<1%
70-71°F 42%
72-73°F 36%
68-69°F 14%
74-75°F 7%
NOVO
$21,894 Vol.
NOVO
$21,894 Vol.
12 ago 2026
63°F ou menos
$841 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$1,513 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$1,578 Vol.
4%
68-69°F
$4,099 Vol.
14%
70-71°F
$4,549 Vol.
42%
72-73°F
$1,902 Vol.
36%
74-75°F
$1,539 Vol.
7%
76-77°F
$2,925 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$2,082 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$481 Vol.
<1%
82°F ou mais
$386 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent marine layer and steady onshore flow from the cool Pacific Ocean are the dominant factors capping San Francisco's afternoon highs near 70°F on August 12, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on the 70-71°F bin at 42.5% implied probability. NOAA and AccuWeather model guidance, reflecting typical August climatology of 68-70°F at downtown and airport stations, shows limited ensemble spread that favors this narrow range over warmer 72-73°F outcomes. Recent observations confirm moderate southwesterly winds and stratus persistence that suppress radiative heating, while historical analogs indicate rare exceedances above 75°F under similar synoptic patterns. Updated forecast runs and real-time surface data will refine resolution criteria tied to official NWS maximum temperature reports.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$21,894Data de Término
12 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent marine layer and steady onshore flow from the cool Pacific Ocean are the dominant factors capping San Francisco's afternoon highs near 70°F on August 12, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on the 70-71°F bin at 42.5% implied probability. NOAA and AccuWeather model guidance, reflecting typical August climatology of 68-70°F at downtown and airport stations, shows limited ensemble spread that favors this narrow range over warmer 72-73°F outcomes. Recent observations confirm moderate southwesterly winds and stratus persistence that suppress radiative heating, while historical analogs indicate rare exceedances above 75°F under similar synoptic patterns. Updated forecast runs and real-time surface data will refine resolution criteria tied to official NWS maximum temperature reports.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,894Data de Término
12 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent marine layer and steady onshore flow from the cool Pacific Ocean are the dominant factors capping San Francisco's afternoon highs near 70°F on August 12, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on the 70-71°F bin at 42.5% implied probability. NOAA and AccuWeather model guidance, reflecting typical August climatology of 68-70°F at downtown and airport stations, shows limited ensemble spread that favors this narrow range over warmer 72-73°F outcomes. Recent observations confirm moderate southwesterly winds and stratus persistence that suppress radiative heating, while historical analogs indicate rare exceedances above 75°F under similar synoptic patterns. Updated forecast runs and real-time surface data will refine resolution criteria tied to official NWS maximum temperature reports.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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