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icon for Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?
Finanças·Jerome Powell

Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?

icon for Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?
Finanças·Jerome Powell

Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

$215,520 Vol.

31 dez 2026
Polymarket

$215,520 Vol.

Polymarket

4,6%

$37,797 Vol.

97%

4,8%

$47,611 Vol.

45%

5,0%

$49,754 Vol.

27%

5,2%

$9,115 Vol.

10%

5,5%

$1,471 Vol.

7%

5,7%

$3,229 Vol.

6%

6,0%

$2,152 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.59 percent as of May 15, 2026, its highest level since February 2025, driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April producer prices and resilient economic data that have tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve easing. With the fed funds rate holding steady near 3.50–3.75 percent amid sticky core inflation around 3 percent, markets are pricing in limited near-term rate cuts and elevated term premiums. Rising Treasury issuance to finance fiscal deficits, combined with potential tariff-related price pressures, continues to anchor longer-term yields above 4 percent. Traders are closely watching the May CPI release and the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether yields could test the 4.75–5.00 percent zone before year-end or remain capped by moderating growth.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$215,520
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Resultado proposto: Sim

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Sim

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.59 percent as of May 15, 2026, its highest level since February 2025, driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April producer prices and resilient economic data that have tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve easing. With the fed funds rate holding steady near 3.50–3.75 percent amid sticky core inflation around 3 percent, markets are pricing in limited near-term rate cuts and elevated term premiums. Rising Treasury issuance to finance fiscal deficits, combined with potential tariff-related price pressures, continues to anchor longer-term yields above 4 percent. Traders are closely watching the May CPI release and the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether yields could test the 4.75–5.00 percent zone before year-end or remain capped by moderating growth.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$215,520
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Resultado proposto: Sim

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4,3%" at 100%, followed by "4,4%" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?" has generated $215.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?" is "4,3%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4,4%" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.