**Trader consensus heavily favors 170-189 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but constrained volumes amid ongoing Houthi threats.** Recent maritime intelligence shows daily crossings typically ranging 30–50 vessels, with weekly aggregates in prior periods landing between roughly 250–300 before adjustments for dark (AIS-off) transits that obscure precise counts. Persistent attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage, including the late-August strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, have sustained elevated war-risk premia and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, particularly for container ships, while tankers and bulkers maintain more resilient flows. Market-implied odds embed the “skin-in-the-game” assessment that volumes will remain near recent averages without a full strait closure or sharp escalation. A material drop below 170 would require intensified attacks or broader carrier pullouts, while upside surprises above 210 remain unlikely absent rapid de-escalation and restored AIS visibility.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 31 de agosto?
Quantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 31 de agosto?
170-189 96.0%
190-209 9.7%
210-229 9.7%
<170 7.9%
$38,972 Vol.
$38,972 Vol.
6 set 2026
<170
Não
170-189
Sim
190-209
Não
210-229
Não
230+
Não
170-189 96.0%
190-209 9.7%
210-229 9.7%
<170 7.9%
$38,972 Vol.
$38,972 Vol.
6 set 2026
<170
$1,634 Vol.
Não
170-189
$4,913 Vol.
Sim
190-209
$6,177 Vol.
Não
210-229
$10,404 Vol.
Não
230+
$15,845 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader consensus heavily favors 170-189 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but constrained volumes amid ongoing Houthi threats.** Recent maritime intelligence shows daily crossings typically ranging 30–50 vessels, with weekly aggregates in prior periods landing between roughly 250–300 before adjustments for dark (AIS-off) transits that obscure precise counts. Persistent attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage, including the late-August strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, have sustained elevated war-risk premia and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, particularly for container ships, while tankers and bulkers maintain more resilient flows. Market-implied odds embed the “skin-in-the-game” assessment that volumes will remain near recent averages without a full strait closure or sharp escalation. A material drop below 170 would require intensified attacks or broader carrier pullouts, while upside surprises above 210 remain unlikely absent rapid de-escalation and restored AIS visibility.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$38,972Data de Término
6 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader consensus heavily favors 170-189 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but constrained volumes amid ongoing Houthi threats.** Recent maritime intelligence shows daily crossings typically ranging 30–50 vessels, with weekly aggregates in prior periods landing between roughly 250–300 before adjustments for dark (AIS-off) transits that obscure precise counts. Persistent attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage, including the late-August strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, have sustained elevated war-risk premia and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, particularly for container ships, while tankers and bulkers maintain more resilient flows. Market-implied odds embed the “skin-in-the-game” assessment that volumes will remain near recent averages without a full strait closure or sharp escalation. A material drop below 170 would require intensified attacks or broader carrier pullouts, while upside surprises above 210 remain unlikely absent rapid de-escalation and restored AIS visibility.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$38,972Data de Término
6 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
**Trader consensus heavily favors 170-189 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but constrained volumes amid ongoing Houthi threats.** Recent maritime intelligence shows daily crossings typically ranging 30–50 vessels, with weekly aggregates in prior periods landing between roughly 250–300 before adjustments for dark (AIS-off) transits that obscure precise counts. Persistent attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage, including the late-August strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, have sustained elevated war-risk premia and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, particularly for container ships, while tankers and bulkers maintain more resilient flows. Market-implied odds embed the “skin-in-the-game” assessment that volumes will remain near recent averages without a full strait closure or sharp escalation. A material drop below 170 would require intensified attacks or broader carrier pullouts, while upside surprises above 210 remain unlikely absent rapid de-escalation and restored AIS visibility.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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