NASA's repeated delays to the Artemis program, including the February 2026 restructuring that shifted the first crewed lunar landing from Artemis III to Artemis IV in 2028, underpin the 99.1% market-implied probability against a 2026 human moon landing. Artemis II completed its crewed flyby in April without any surface operations, while Artemis III has been repurposed as a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration of commercial landers from SpaceX and Blue Origin. Ongoing integration challenges with the Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and lunar lander hardware, combined with historical schedule slips, reinforce trader consensus that a 2026 landing remains technically and logistically unfeasible. Potential last-minute catalysts like accelerated testing or funding surges could theoretically alter timelines, though realistic barriers such as propulsion system issues or certification delays make such shifts improbable before year-end.