Israeli authorities have kept the Tel Aviv Flight Information Region open since the last temporary closures during the February–July 2026 Iran conflict, which featured repeated US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses. Recent developments include a June 2026 brief shutdown after interception of a Yemen-launched missile and renewed regional military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July that prompted an EASA risk advisory. Officials have repeatedly assessed the situation and confirmed continued operations at Ben-Gurion Airport, while noting ongoing monitoring for escalations. Key drivers of potential future closures remain ballistic threats from Iran or proxies, diplomatic or military triggers that could prompt short-notice restrictions, and any breakdown in the fragile post-ceasefire environment. Traders weigh these security assessments against statements ruling out immediate shutdowns when evaluating resolution by target dates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$27,263,577 Vol.
14 jul 2026
31 de agosto
5%
30 de setembro
12%
$27,263,577 Vol.
31 de agosto
$1,231,696 Vol.
5%
30 de setembro
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israeli authorities have kept the Tel Aviv Flight Information Region open since the last temporary closures during the February–July 2026 Iran conflict, which featured repeated US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses. Recent developments include a June 2026 brief shutdown after interception of a Yemen-launched missile and renewed regional military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July that prompted an EASA risk advisory. Officials have repeatedly assessed the situation and confirmed continued operations at Ben-Gurion Airport, while noting ongoing monitoring for escalations. Key drivers of potential future closures remain ballistic threats from Iran or proxies, diplomatic or military triggers that could prompt short-notice restrictions, and any breakdown in the fragile post-ceasefire environment. Traders weigh these security assessments against statements ruling out immediate shutdowns when evaluating resolution by target dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$27,263,577Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israeli authorities have kept the Tel Aviv Flight Information Region open since the last temporary closures during the February–July 2026 Iran conflict, which featured repeated US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses. Recent developments include a June 2026 brief shutdown after interception of a Yemen-launched missile and renewed regional military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July that prompted an EASA risk advisory. Officials have repeatedly assessed the situation and confirmed continued operations at Ben-Gurion Airport, while noting ongoing monitoring for escalations. Key drivers of potential future closures remain ballistic threats from Iran or proxies, diplomatic or military triggers that could prompt short-notice restrictions, and any breakdown in the fragile post-ceasefire environment. Traders weigh these security assessments against statements ruling out immediate shutdowns when evaluating resolution by target dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,263,577Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli authorities have kept the Tel Aviv Flight Information Region open since the last temporary closures during the February–July 2026 Iran conflict, which featured repeated US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses. Recent developments include a June 2026 brief shutdown after interception of a Yemen-launched missile and renewed regional military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July that prompted an EASA risk advisory. Officials have repeatedly assessed the situation and confirmed continued operations at Ben-Gurion Airport, while noting ongoing monitoring for escalations. Key drivers of potential future closures remain ballistic threats from Iran or proxies, diplomatic or military triggers that could prompt short-notice restrictions, and any breakdown in the fragile post-ceasefire environment. Traders weigh these security assessments against statements ruling out immediate shutdowns when evaluating resolution by target dates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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