Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Chengdu's overnight low on August 28 will likely settle near 24–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered rain, and moderating humidity from a regional weather pattern rather than clear-sky radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for late August in the Sichuan Basin, where monsoon influences and urban heat retention often produce similar minima. The market's balanced 50% odds across bins reflect uncertainty in precise timing of any overnight showers and minor model spreads in steering flows, with traders weighting official guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours could refine resolution around these thresholds.