Forecast models from sources including the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and international ensembles indicate Moscow's minimum temperature on September 2 will likely fall in the 14–16 °C range, driven by a moderating southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching Atlantic cyclone. Persistent cloud cover and light precipitation expected overnight will limit radiational cooling, keeping surface temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 10.5 °C. Dew-point values near 13–14 °C and moderate wind speeds further constrain how far the mercury can drop before sunrise. Slight differences among model runs—arising from variations in boundary-layer mixing and exact frontal timing—create the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across the 13–20 °C outcomes while keeping tails below 12 °C or above 21 °C at low single digits. Updated guidance from the next model cycle could shift the precise minimum within this narrow band.