Recent model consensus from NOAA and private forecasters points to overnight lows in the mid-70s for New York City on June 12, with the tight spread between 76-77°F and 78-79°F outcomes reflecting lingering uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover that modulate radiative cooling rates. Dew points near 70°F are expected to limit temperature drops despite light winds under high pressure, while urban heat island effects from the city’s concrete and asphalt surfaces typically add 2–4°F to minimum readings compared with rural stations. Ensemble spreads remain modest because steering patterns show minimal frontal influence, yet small shifts in timing of any marine layer or scattered clouds could push the official Central Park minimum across the 75–78°F thresholds that resolve the market.