**The official National Weather Service minimum of 58°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on September 16, 2026, recorded at 5:55 a.m. PDT, directly anchors the 99.5% market-implied probability for the 58-59°F bin.** This value sits 2°F above the 1991-2020 normal low and reflects typical late-summer marine-layer influence that moderates overnight cooling along the coast without allowing deeper drops. Recent model guidance and surface observations showed no anomalous cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling that would push temperatures into the 56-57°F range. The 0.5% probability on the lower bin accounts for minor station differences or measurement uncertainty, but the authoritative KSFO reading aligns precisely with the dominant outcome. A shift would require revised official data or an alternate station definition outside standard Polymarket criteria.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em São Francisco no dia 16 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em São Francisco no dia 16 de setembro?
58-59°F 100.0%
49°F ou menos 1.0%
52-53°F 1.0%
54-55°F 1.0%
$3,383 Vol.
$3,383 Vol.
16 set 2026
49°F ou menos
Não
10°C-10,6°C
Não
52-53°F
Não
54-55°F
Não
56-57°F
Não
58-59°F
Sim
60-61°F
Não
62-63°F
Não
64-65°F
Não
66-67°F
Não
68°F ou mais
Não
58-59°F 100.0%
49°F ou menos 1.0%
52-53°F 1.0%
54-55°F 1.0%
$3,383 Vol.
$3,383 Vol.
16 set 2026
49°F ou menos
$0 Vol.
Não
10°C-10,6°C
$56 Vol.
Não
52-53°F
$10 Vol.
Não
54-55°F
$20 Vol.
Não
56-57°F
$167 Vol.
Não
58-59°F
$261 Vol.
Sim
60-61°F
$2,811 Vol.
Não
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
Não
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
Não
66-67°F
$57 Vol.
Não
68°F ou mais
$0 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The official National Weather Service minimum of 58°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on September 16, 2026, recorded at 5:55 a.m. PDT, directly anchors the 99.5% market-implied probability for the 58-59°F bin.** This value sits 2°F above the 1991-2020 normal low and reflects typical late-summer marine-layer influence that moderates overnight cooling along the coast without allowing deeper drops. Recent model guidance and surface observations showed no anomalous cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling that would push temperatures into the 56-57°F range. The 0.5% probability on the lower bin accounts for minor station differences or measurement uncertainty, but the authoritative KSFO reading aligns precisely with the dominant outcome. A shift would require revised official data or an alternate station definition outside standard Polymarket criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 14, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,383Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 7:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The official National Weather Service minimum of 58°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on September 16, 2026, recorded at 5:55 a.m. PDT, directly anchors the 99.5% market-implied probability for the 58-59°F bin.** This value sits 2°F above the 1991-2020 normal low and reflects typical late-summer marine-layer influence that moderates overnight cooling along the coast without allowing deeper drops. Recent model guidance and surface observations showed no anomalous cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling that would push temperatures into the 56-57°F range. The 0.5% probability on the lower bin accounts for minor station differences or measurement uncertainty, but the authoritative KSFO reading aligns precisely with the dominant outcome. A shift would require revised official data or an alternate station definition outside standard Polymarket criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,383Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 7:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
**The official National Weather Service minimum of 58°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on September 16, 2026, recorded at 5:55 a.m. PDT, directly anchors the 99.5% market-implied probability for the 58-59°F bin.** This value sits 2°F above the 1991-2020 normal low and reflects typical late-summer marine-layer influence that moderates overnight cooling along the coast without allowing deeper drops. Recent model guidance and surface observations showed no anomalous cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling that would push temperatures into the 56-57°F range. The 0.5% probability on the lower bin accounts for minor station differences or measurement uncertainty, but the authoritative KSFO reading aligns precisely with the dominant outcome. A shift would require revised official data or an alternate station definition outside standard Polymarket criteria.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions