Recent forecasts from global models indicate a minimum overnight temperature near 22–23°C in Tel Aviv on September 21, driven by clear skies, light northwesterly winds, and moderate humidity that limits radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure regime. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 20–21°C reflects model spread in the precise timing and intensity of nocturnal cooling, as urban heat-island effects and proximity to the Mediterranean can add 1–2°C locally compared with inland stations. Historical September minima average near 22°C, with current conditions lacking the stronger northerly flow or higher dew points that would push readings below 20°C or hold them above 24°C. Updated model runs and official Israel Meteorological Service observations tonight will resolve the narrow gap between these leading outcomes.