Traders assign the highest implied probability (42.5%) to a 23°C low in Tokyo on August 16, narrowly ahead of 24°C at 33%, as short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ECMWF show temperatures hovering near these thresholds amid typical late-summer conditions. A weak subtropical ridge and light southerly flow are expected to limit nocturnal cooling, while variable cloud cover and urban heat-island effects introduce the main uncertainty between adjacent outcomes. Historical August minimums average near 24°C, but recent model runs highlight sensitivity to small shifts in dew point or wind speed. The next JMA update and higher-resolution guidance later today will likely refine the narrow spread between 23°C and 24°C.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Tóquio no dia 16 de agosto?
Temperatura mais baixa em Tóquio no dia 16 de agosto?
23°C 43%
24°C 36%
25°C 10%
22°C 7%
NOVO
NOVO
16 ago 2026
18°C ou menos
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
4%
21°C
6%
22°C
7%
23°C
43%
24°C
36%
25°C
10%
26°C
4%
27°C
1%
28°C ou mais
<1%
23°C 43%
24°C 36%
25°C 10%
22°C 7%
NOVO
NOVO
16 ago 2026
18°C ou menos
$48 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$38 Vol.
1%
20°C
$15 Vol.
4%
21°C
$10 Vol.
6%
22°C
$37 Vol.
7%
23°C
$423 Vol.
43%
24°C
$184 Vol.
36%
25°C
$139 Vol.
10%
26°C
$21 Vol.
4%
27°C
$38 Vol.
1%
28°C ou mais
$65 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (42.5%) to a 23°C low in Tokyo on August 16, narrowly ahead of 24°C at 33%, as short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ECMWF show temperatures hovering near these thresholds amid typical late-summer conditions. A weak subtropical ridge and light southerly flow are expected to limit nocturnal cooling, while variable cloud cover and urban heat-island effects introduce the main uncertainty between adjacent outcomes. Historical August minimums average near 24°C, but recent model runs highlight sensitivity to small shifts in dew point or wind speed. The next JMA update and higher-resolution guidance later today will likely refine the narrow spread between 23°C and 24°C.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$1,017Data de Término
16 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (42.5%) to a 23°C low in Tokyo on August 16, narrowly ahead of 24°C at 33%, as short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ECMWF show temperatures hovering near these thresholds amid typical late-summer conditions. A weak subtropical ridge and light southerly flow are expected to limit nocturnal cooling, while variable cloud cover and urban heat-island effects introduce the main uncertainty between adjacent outcomes. Historical August minimums average near 24°C, but recent model runs highlight sensitivity to small shifts in dew point or wind speed. The next JMA update and higher-resolution guidance later today will likely refine the narrow spread between 23°C and 24°C.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,017Data de Término
16 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability (42.5%) to a 23°C low in Tokyo on August 16, narrowly ahead of 24°C at 33%, as short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ECMWF show temperatures hovering near these thresholds amid typical late-summer conditions. A weak subtropical ridge and light southerly flow are expected to limit nocturnal cooling, while variable cloud cover and urban heat-island effects introduce the main uncertainty between adjacent outcomes. Historical August minimums average near 24°C, but recent model runs highlight sensitivity to small shifts in dew point or wind speed. The next JMA update and higher-resolution guidance later today will likely refine the narrow spread between 23°C and 24°C.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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