**Current forecasts from major models indicate a minimum temperature of 10°C in Warsaw on September 16, supporting the market's strong 97.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with light southerly winds shifting northwest, has allowed temperatures to approach or reach this level after daytime highs near 24–25°C. This aligns with climatological expectations for mid-September, when average lows hover around 10–12°C. The consensus reflects aggregated trader assessment of official station data and model consensus, with limited divergence among runs. A realistic shift away from 10°C would require unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or measurement variations at the primary Warsaw station that push the recorded minimum to 9°C or 11°C before midnight.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Varsóvia em 16 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Varsóvia em 16 de setembro?
10°C 100.0%
8°C 7.5%
9°C 1.0%
6°C ou menos <1%
$1,207 Vol.
$1,207 Vol.
16 set 2026
6°C ou menos
Não
7°C
Não
8°C
Não
9°C
Não
10°C
Sim
11°C
Não
12°C
Não
13°C
Não
14°C
Não
15°C
Não
16°C ou mais
Não
10°C 100.0%
8°C 7.5%
9°C 1.0%
6°C ou menos <1%
$1,207 Vol.
$1,207 Vol.
16 set 2026
6°C ou menos
$16 Vol.
Não
7°C
$230 Vol.
Não
8°C
$343 Vol.
Não
9°C
$37 Vol.
Não
10°C
$60 Vol.
Sim
11°C
$136 Vol.
Não
12°C
$231 Vol.
Não
13°C
$46 Vol.
Não
14°C
$72 Vol.
Não
15°C
$21 Vol.
Não
16°C ou mais
$16 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from major models indicate a minimum temperature of 10°C in Warsaw on September 16, supporting the market's strong 97.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with light southerly winds shifting northwest, has allowed temperatures to approach or reach this level after daytime highs near 24–25°C. This aligns with climatological expectations for mid-September, when average lows hover around 10–12°C. The consensus reflects aggregated trader assessment of official station data and model consensus, with limited divergence among runs. A realistic shift away from 10°C would require unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or measurement variations at the primary Warsaw station that push the recorded minimum to 9°C or 11°C before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,207Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from major models indicate a minimum temperature of 10°C in Warsaw on September 16, supporting the market's strong 97.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with light southerly winds shifting northwest, has allowed temperatures to approach or reach this level after daytime highs near 24–25°C. This aligns with climatological expectations for mid-September, when average lows hover around 10–12°C. The consensus reflects aggregated trader assessment of official station data and model consensus, with limited divergence among runs. A realistic shift away from 10°C would require unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or measurement variations at the primary Warsaw station that push the recorded minimum to 9°C or 11°C before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,207Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
**Current forecasts from major models indicate a minimum temperature of 10°C in Warsaw on September 16, supporting the market's strong 97.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with light southerly winds shifting northwest, has allowed temperatures to approach or reach this level after daytime highs near 24–25°C. This aligns with climatological expectations for mid-September, when average lows hover around 10–12°C. The consensus reflects aggregated trader assessment of official station data and model consensus, with limited divergence among runs. A realistic shift away from 10°C would require unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or measurement variations at the primary Warsaw station that push the recorded minimum to 9°C or 11°C before midnight.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions