Recent U.S. economic data and professional forecasts underpin the 93.7 percent market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized pace in the first quarter, rebounding from the prior period’s 0.5 percent reading, with business investment in AI-related equipment and structures surging at its fastest pace in nearly three years. Consensus projections from sources including Goldman Sachs and the Philadelphia Fed now center on full-year real GDP growth between 2.0 percent and 2.6 percent, supported by fiscal tailwinds, resilient consumer spending, and ongoing capital expenditures. Key near-term catalysts include the May 28 second-quarter estimate and upcoming inflation and labor-market releases. Still, a prolonged Middle East conflict driving sustained energy-price spikes or sharper-than-expected tariff pass-through could compress growth toward zero or below.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCrescimento negativo do PIB em 2026?
Crescimento negativo do PIB em 2026?
Sim
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
29 jan 2027
Sim
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
29 jan 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and professional forecasts underpin the 93.7 percent market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized pace in the first quarter, rebounding from the prior period’s 0.5 percent reading, with business investment in AI-related equipment and structures surging at its fastest pace in nearly three years. Consensus projections from sources including Goldman Sachs and the Philadelphia Fed now center on full-year real GDP growth between 2.0 percent and 2.6 percent, supported by fiscal tailwinds, resilient consumer spending, and ongoing capital expenditures. Key near-term catalysts include the May 28 second-quarter estimate and upcoming inflation and labor-market releases. Still, a prolonged Middle East conflict driving sustained energy-price spikes or sharper-than-expected tariff pass-through could compress growth toward zero or below.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$26,508Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and professional forecasts underpin the 93.7 percent market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized pace in the first quarter, rebounding from the prior period’s 0.5 percent reading, with business investment in AI-related equipment and structures surging at its fastest pace in nearly three years. Consensus projections from sources including Goldman Sachs and the Philadelphia Fed now center on full-year real GDP growth between 2.0 percent and 2.6 percent, supported by fiscal tailwinds, resilient consumer spending, and ongoing capital expenditures. Key near-term catalysts include the May 28 second-quarter estimate and upcoming inflation and labor-market releases. Still, a prolonged Middle East conflict driving sustained energy-price spikes or sharper-than-expected tariff pass-through could compress growth toward zero or below.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$26,508Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and professional forecasts underpin the 93.7 percent market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized pace in the first quarter, rebounding from the prior period’s 0.5 percent reading, with business investment in AI-related equipment and structures surging at its fastest pace in nearly three years. Consensus projections from sources including Goldman Sachs and the Philadelphia Fed now center on full-year real GDP growth between 2.0 percent and 2.6 percent, supported by fiscal tailwinds, resilient consumer spending, and ongoing capital expenditures. Key near-term catalysts include the May 28 second-quarter estimate and upcoming inflation and labor-market releases. Still, a prolonged Middle East conflict driving sustained energy-price spikes or sharper-than-expected tariff pass-through could compress growth toward zero or below.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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