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Eleições·Reino Unido

Next First Minister of Scotland?

icon for Next First Minister of Scotland?
Eleições·Reino Unido

Next First Minister of Scotland?

John Swinney 99.6%

Alex Cole-Hamilton <1%

Malcolm Offord <1%

Russell Findlay <1%

Polymarket

$11,060 Vol.

John Swinney 99.6%

Alex Cole-Hamilton <1%

Malcolm Offord <1%

Russell Findlay <1%

Polymarket

$11,060 Vol.

icon for John Swinney

John Swinney

$3,218 Vol.

100%

icon for Alex Cole-Hamilton

Alex Cole-Hamilton

$1,346 Vol.

1%

icon for Malcolm Offord

Malcolm Offord

$912 Vol.

1%

icon for Russell Findlay

Russell Findlay

$2,554 Vol.

1%

icon for Anas Sarwar

Anas Sarwar

$1,945 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ross Greer

Ross Greer

$515 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gillian Mackay

Gillian Mackay

$570 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.John Swinney maintains overwhelming market support as the likely next First Minister of Scotland through his incumbency as SNP leader and current officeholder since 2024, which provides established visibility and party infrastructure advantages ahead of the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election. The SNP’s sustained focus on constitutional priorities and internal cohesion have reinforced this positioning, while opposition parties remain divided across Labour, Scottish Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats with no single challenger consolidating support. Traders’ consensus highlights the structural barriers to an early leadership transition or coalition-driven alternative. Shifts remain possible if the SNP underperforms electorally and requires negotiations for a minority administration, or if post-election pressures prompt an internal SNP review.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,060
Data de Término
7 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.John Swinney maintains overwhelming market support as the likely next First Minister of Scotland through his incumbency as SNP leader and current officeholder since 2024, which provides established visibility and party infrastructure advantages ahead of the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election. The SNP’s sustained focus on constitutional priorities and internal cohesion have reinforced this positioning, while opposition parties remain divided across Labour, Scottish Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats with no single challenger consolidating support. Traders’ consensus highlights the structural barriers to an early leadership transition or coalition-driven alternative. Shifts remain possible if the SNP underperforms electorally and requires negotiations for a minority administration, or if post-election pressures prompt an internal SNP review.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,060
Data de Término
7 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next First Minister of Scotland?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Swinney" at 100%, followed by "Alex Cole-Hamilton" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next First Minister of Scotland?" has generated $11.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next First Minister of Scotland?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next First Minister of Scotland?" is "John Swinney" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alex Cole-Hamilton" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next First Minister of Scotland?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.