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Política·Prémios

Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026

icon for Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026
Política·Prémios

Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026

Donald Trump 10%

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 6.0%

UNRWA 5.0%

Polymarket

$17,650,455 Vol.

Donald Trump 10%

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 6.0%

UNRWA 5.0%

Polymarket

$17,650,455 Vol.

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$3,371,693 Vol.

10%

icon for Yulia Navalnaya

Yulia Navalnaya

$157,150 Vol.

8%

icon for Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$499,632 Vol.

6%

icon for UNRWA

UNRWA

$1,945,832 Vol.

5%

icon for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$611,010 Vol.

4%

icon for Papa Leão XIV

Papa Leão XIV

$698,528 Vol.

3%

icon for Tribunal Internacional de Justiça

Tribunal Internacional de Justiça

$760,331 Vol.

2%

icon for Narendra Modi

Narendra Modi

$544,498 Vol.

2%

icon for Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping

$1,140,500 Vol.

1%

icon for Greta Thunberg

Greta Thunberg

$1,194,966 Vol.

1%

icon for Charlie Kirk

Charlie Kirk

$905,945 Vol.

1%

icon for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

$709,115 Vol.

1%

icon for Ahmed al-Sharaa

Ahmed al-Sharaa

$949,663 Vol.

1%

icon for António Guterres

António Guterres

$419,230 Vol.

1%

icon for Khaled Mashal

Khaled Mashal

$452,521 Vol.

1%

icon for Mohammed bin Salman

Mohammed bin Salman

$816,211 Vol.

1%

icon for Julian Assange

Julian Assange

$500,976 Vol.

1%

icon for Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin

$744,771 Vol.

1%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$731,546 Vol.

<1%

icon for Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu

$496,564 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize field stays tightly contested with no dominant frontrunner, as Donald Trump’s 9.5% market-implied odds edge out Yulia Navalnaya and Volodymyr Zelenskyy amid a broad field of contenders. Trader consensus reflects the award’s tradition of surprising choices tied to sudden diplomatic breakthroughs or humanitarian efforts rather than established names, with ongoing global conflicts creating uncertainty about which developments will resonate most with the committee. Recent momentum around potential Ukraine negotiations and Middle East de-escalation efforts has kept probabilities fluid, while the absence of major precursor signals or guild-style endorsements this early leaves room for late surges. Upcoming catalysts such as high-profile peace summits or verified conflict resolutions before the October announcement could quickly reshape the leaderboard.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$17,650,455
Data de Término
10 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize field stays tightly contested with no dominant frontrunner, as Donald Trump’s 9.5% market-implied odds edge out Yulia Navalnaya and Volodymyr Zelenskyy amid a broad field of contenders. Trader consensus reflects the award’s tradition of surprising choices tied to sudden diplomatic breakthroughs or humanitarian efforts rather than established names, with ongoing global conflicts creating uncertainty about which developments will resonate most with the committee. Recent momentum around potential Ukraine negotiations and Middle East de-escalation efforts has kept probabilities fluid, while the absence of major precursor signals or guild-style endorsements this early leaves room for late surges. Upcoming catalysts such as high-profile peace summits or verified conflict resolutions before the October announcement could quickly reshape the leaderboard.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$17,650,455
Data de Término
10 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Donald Trump" at 10%, followed by "Yulia Navalnaya" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" has generated $17.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" is "Donald Trump" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Yulia Navalnaya" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.