Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth continues to lead the Pentagon as the Trump administration advances its fiscal 2027 defense budget request and manages operations related to the Iran conflict. Recent congressional testimony by Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine before House and Senate appropriations subcommittees focused on wartime resource needs and weapons production, with no accompanying statements signaling an impending exit. An impeachment resolution introduced in late 2025 remains stalled in committee, while reports of internal leadership changes have not translated into broader institutional moves against the secretary. These factors align with traders assigning a 69% probability that Hegseth remains in the role through December 31, reflecting the absence of decisive political or procedural developments that would alter his position before year-end.