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icon for RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

icon for RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

dez 31

dez 31

29% chance
Polymarket

$18,824 Vol.

29% chance
Polymarket

$18,824 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remains in his role as HHS Secretary, actively advancing the Make America Healthy Again agenda through recent congressional testimonies on the department’s 2027 budget and ongoing agency restructuring. In April 2026 he defended fiscal priorities and chronic disease initiatives before House and Senate committees, while May events included public outreach on prevention-focused strategies. Internal leadership adjustments earlier in the year and Democratic calls for removal have not prompted presidential action or altered his implementation timeline. With no scheduled confirmation challenges, term limits, or announced resignation signals through the remainder of 2026, traders see continuity as the baseline, reflected in the 71% implied probability against departure by year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,824
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remains in his role as HHS Secretary, actively advancing the Make America Healthy Again agenda through recent congressional testimonies on the department’s 2027 budget and ongoing agency restructuring. In April 2026 he defended fiscal priorities and chronic disease initiatives before House and Senate committees, while May events included public outreach on prevention-focused strategies. Internal leadership adjustments earlier in the year and Democratic calls for removal have not prompted presidential action or altered his implementation timeline. With no scheduled confirmation challenges, term limits, or announced resignation signals through the remainder of 2026, traders see continuity as the baseline, reflected in the 71% implied probability against departure by year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,824
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"RFK Jr. Out by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 29% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 29¢, the market collectively assigns a 29% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "RFK Jr. Out by December 31?" has generated $18.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "RFK Jr. Out by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "RFK Jr. Out by December 31?" is 29% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 29% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "RFK Jr. Out by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.