Trader consensus on the price of a dozen eggs in May centers on the $2.00–$2.25 range at a 64% implied probability, driven by the sharp rebound in U.S. egg supply following reduced avian flu losses in early 2026. Wholesale prices have fallen below $0.40 per dozen in mid-May, with BLS data showing the national average retail price at $2.25 in April—a 4% sequential decline that reflects expanded flock restocking and heavier inventories. This supply surge has outweighed seasonal demand, keeping forward-looking market-implied odds anchored near pre-outbreak levels despite lingering HPAI risks. Key upcoming releases, including May CPI components and USDA production reports, could refine these probabilities if they confirm sustained downward pressure on costs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$2.00–$2.25 64%
$2.25–$2.50 28%
$1.75–$2.00 8%
$3.25–$3.50 2.1%
<$1.50
1%
$1.50–$1.75
1%
$1.75–$2.00
8%
$2.00–$2.25
64%
$2.25–$2.50
28%
$2.50–$2.75
2%
$2.75–$3.00
1%
$3.00–$3.25
1%
$3.25–$3.50
2%
≥$3.50
1%
$2.00–$2.25 64%
$2.25–$2.50 28%
$1.75–$2.00 8%
$3.25–$3.50 2.1%
<$1.50
1%
$1.50–$1.75
1%
$1.75–$2.00
8%
$2.00–$2.25
64%
$2.25–$2.50
28%
$2.50–$2.75
2%
$2.75–$3.00
1%
$3.00–$3.25
1%
$3.25–$3.50
2%
≥$3.50
1%
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The May release is presently scheduled for June 10, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: May 12, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The May release is presently scheduled for June 10, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the price of a dozen eggs in May centers on the $2.00–$2.25 range at a 64% implied probability, driven by the sharp rebound in U.S. egg supply following reduced avian flu losses in early 2026. Wholesale prices have fallen below $0.40 per dozen in mid-May, with BLS data showing the national average retail price at $2.25 in April—a 4% sequential decline that reflects expanded flock restocking and heavier inventories. This supply surge has outweighed seasonal demand, keeping forward-looking market-implied odds anchored near pre-outbreak levels despite lingering HPAI risks. Key upcoming releases, including May CPI components and USDA production reports, could refine these probabilities if they confirm sustained downward pressure on costs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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