Republican prospects for retaining House seats in the 2026 midterms reflect a Democratic generic ballot advantage of roughly six to seven points in recent polling, combined with the historical pattern of midterm losses for the president's party. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority of about 218 seats entering the cycle, with forecasts from models and consensus projections pointing to net Democratic gains that could reduce the GOP total into the low 200s or below. Battleground ratings highlight around 46 competitive districts, many held by Republicans, alongside a high number of open seats from retirements. Trader positioning across the provided outcome bins aligns with these dynamics, emphasizing the potential impact of national conditions, turnout, and redistricting effects on final seat counts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?
Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?
Abaixo de 190 24%
190-194 13%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$286,514 Vol.
$286,514 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Abaixo de 190
24%
190-194
13%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
11%
210-214
9%
215-219
5%
220-224
8%
225-229
7%
230+
4%
Abaixo de 190 24%
190-194 13%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$286,514 Vol.
$286,514 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Abaixo de 190
$32,984 Vol.
24%
190-194
$13,778 Vol.
13%
195-199
$32,609 Vol.
12%
200-204
$24,750 Vol.
12%
205-209
$40,227 Vol.
11%
210-214
$15,669 Vol.
9%
215-219
$11,463 Vol.
5%
220-224
$59,267 Vol.
8%
225-229
$24,767 Vol.
7%
230+
$31,001 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republican prospects for retaining House seats in the 2026 midterms reflect a Democratic generic ballot advantage of roughly six to seven points in recent polling, combined with the historical pattern of midterm losses for the president's party. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority of about 218 seats entering the cycle, with forecasts from models and consensus projections pointing to net Democratic gains that could reduce the GOP total into the low 200s or below. Battleground ratings highlight around 46 competitive districts, many held by Republicans, alongside a high number of open seats from retirements. Trader positioning across the provided outcome bins aligns with these dynamics, emphasizing the potential impact of national conditions, turnout, and redistricting effects on final seat counts.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$286,514Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republican prospects for retaining House seats in the 2026 midterms reflect a Democratic generic ballot advantage of roughly six to seven points in recent polling, combined with the historical pattern of midterm losses for the president's party. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority of about 218 seats entering the cycle, with forecasts from models and consensus projections pointing to net Democratic gains that could reduce the GOP total into the low 200s or below. Battleground ratings highlight around 46 competitive districts, many held by Republicans, alongside a high number of open seats from retirements. Trader positioning across the provided outcome bins aligns with these dynamics, emphasizing the potential impact of national conditions, turnout, and redistricting effects on final seat counts.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$286,514Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican prospects for retaining House seats in the 2026 midterms reflect a Democratic generic ballot advantage of roughly six to seven points in recent polling, combined with the historical pattern of midterm losses for the president's party. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority of about 218 seats entering the cycle, with forecasts from models and consensus projections pointing to net Democratic gains that could reduce the GOP total into the low 200s or below. Battleground ratings highlight around 46 competitive districts, many held by Republicans, alongside a high number of open seats from retirements. Trader positioning across the provided outcome bins aligns with these dynamics, emphasizing the potential impact of national conditions, turnout, and redistricting effects on final seat counts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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O Partido Democrata controlará a Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?
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