The Supreme Court’s March oral arguments in Watson v. Republican National Committee have driven trader consensus toward a ruling that federal statutes setting Election Day as the deadline require ballots to be both cast and received by that date. Conservative justices questioned state grace periods allowing postmarked mail ballots to arrive days later, viewing them as inconsistent with uniform national Election Day rules that apply across federal contests. With a decision expected by late June or early July—well before the 2026 midterms—traders have priced in the likelihood that the Court will invalidate such extensions in Mississippi and similar provisions in over a dozen other states. This stance aligns with prior lower-court findings that federal law preempts later receipt deadlines, leaving limited room for reversal absent a major shift in the final opinion.