Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems directly from its acquisition and continued possession of Russia’s S-400 air defense systems, which U.S. law under CAATSA and Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA explicitly bars from coexisting with F-35 transfers or support. As of late August 2026, the State Department has confirmed Ankara has not satisfied the statutory conditions of divesting the systems and providing credible future assurances. Diplomatic engagement intensified in 2026, including bilateral talks at the July NATO summit and Trump administration signals of potential sanctions relief, yet reported efforts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a third country have stalled without resolution. Related approvals, such as F110 engines for Turkey’s KAAN fighter, have advanced separately, but full program reentry hinges on verifiable compliance that would allow presidential certification to Congress.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$43,461 Vol.
31 dez 2026
31 de dezembro de 2026
10%
30 de junho de 2027
26%
$43,461 Vol.
31 de dezembro de 2026
$31,959 Vol.
10%
30 de junho de 2027
$11,502 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems directly from its acquisition and continued possession of Russia’s S-400 air defense systems, which U.S. law under CAATSA and Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA explicitly bars from coexisting with F-35 transfers or support. As of late August 2026, the State Department has confirmed Ankara has not satisfied the statutory conditions of divesting the systems and providing credible future assurances. Diplomatic engagement intensified in 2026, including bilateral talks at the July NATO summit and Trump administration signals of potential sanctions relief, yet reported efforts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a third country have stalled without resolution. Related approvals, such as F110 engines for Turkey’s KAAN fighter, have advanced separately, but full program reentry hinges on verifiable compliance that would allow presidential certification to Congress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volume
$43,461Data de Término
1 jul 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems directly from its acquisition and continued possession of Russia’s S-400 air defense systems, which U.S. law under CAATSA and Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA explicitly bars from coexisting with F-35 transfers or support. As of late August 2026, the State Department has confirmed Ankara has not satisfied the statutory conditions of divesting the systems and providing credible future assurances. Diplomatic engagement intensified in 2026, including bilateral talks at the July NATO summit and Trump administration signals of potential sanctions relief, yet reported efforts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a third country have stalled without resolution. Related approvals, such as F110 engines for Turkey’s KAAN fighter, have advanced separately, but full program reentry hinges on verifiable compliance that would allow presidential certification to Congress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volume
$43,461Data de Término
1 jul 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems directly from its acquisition and continued possession of Russia’s S-400 air defense systems, which U.S. law under CAATSA and Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA explicitly bars from coexisting with F-35 transfers or support. As of late August 2026, the State Department has confirmed Ankara has not satisfied the statutory conditions of divesting the systems and providing credible future assurances. Diplomatic engagement intensified in 2026, including bilateral talks at the July NATO summit and Trump administration signals of potential sanctions relief, yet reported efforts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a third country have stalled without resolution. Related approvals, such as F110 engines for Turkey’s KAAN fighter, have advanced separately, but full program reentry hinges on verifiable compliance that would allow presidential certification to Congress.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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