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Política·Primárias

Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas do TX-18

icon for Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas do TX-18
Política·Primárias

Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas do TX-18

Christian Menefee 88.1%

Al Green 10.9%

Gretchen Brown <1%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Polymarket

$27,812 Vol.

Christian Menefee 88.1%

Al Green 10.9%

Gretchen Brown <1%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Polymarket

$27,812 Vol.

Christian Menefee

$16,660 Vol.

88%

Al Green

$4,866 Vol.

11%

Gretchen Brown

$3,570 Vol.

<1%

Amanda Edwards

$2,716 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee (87%) over veteran Rep. Al Green (11%), driven by his sustained polling lead in the redrawn Houston-area district. A University of Houston Hobby School survey released May 12 showed Menefee ahead 50%-43% among likely voters, widening from his February 24-point edge and following a close March 3 primary where both incumbents advanced—no candidate exceeded 50%. Menefee, sworn in after winning a 2026 special election to replace Rep. Sylvester Turner, benefits from generational appeal against Green's long tenure. A May 4 debate highlighted alignments on voting rights but contrasts in experience and early vote attendance. With the May 26 runoff imminent and early voting underway, the solidly Democratic district's winner secures the general election nomination; minor candidates like Gretchen Brown and Amanda Edwards hold no viable path.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$27,812
Data de Término
26 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee (87%) over veteran Rep. Al Green (11%), driven by his sustained polling lead in the redrawn Houston-area district. A University of Houston Hobby School survey released May 12 showed Menefee ahead 50%-43% among likely voters, widening from his February 24-point edge and following a close March 3 primary where both incumbents advanced—no candidate exceeded 50%. Menefee, sworn in after winning a 2026 special election to replace Rep. Sylvester Turner, benefits from generational appeal against Green's long tenure. A May 4 debate highlighted alignments on voting rights but contrasts in experience and early vote attendance. With the May 26 runoff imminent and early voting underway, the solidly Democratic district's winner secures the general election nomination; minor candidates like Gretchen Brown and Amanda Edwards hold no viable path.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$27,812
Data de Término
26 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas do TX-18" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Christian Menefee" at 88%, followed by "Al Green" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas do TX-18" has generated $27.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas do TX-18," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas do TX-18" is "Christian Menefee" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Al Green" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas do TX-18" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.