Traders assign a 95.7% probability to no direct US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic stabilization efforts following the May 2026 US-China summit and subsequent trade measures that reduced immediate escalation risks. Both sides have prioritized crisis-management channels and avoided acute triggers in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea, despite ongoing PLA modernization and a July 2026 Chinese SLBM test demonstrating second-strike capabilities. US munitions constraints from other theaters and mutual deterrence further support the current consensus. The short remaining window through late 2026 limits opportunities for major shifts absent a sudden incident. Realistic factors that could still alter odds include a major miscalculation during exercises, lethal escalation involving US allies such as the Philippines, or rapid deterioration tied to Taiwan developments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoConfronto militar EUA x China antes de 2027?
Confronto militar EUA x China antes de 2027?
Sim
4% chance
$194,565 Vol.
$194,565 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
4% chance
$194,565 Vol.
$194,565 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.7% probability to no direct US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic stabilization efforts following the May 2026 US-China summit and subsequent trade measures that reduced immediate escalation risks. Both sides have prioritized crisis-management channels and avoided acute triggers in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea, despite ongoing PLA modernization and a July 2026 Chinese SLBM test demonstrating second-strike capabilities. US munitions constraints from other theaters and mutual deterrence further support the current consensus. The short remaining window through late 2026 limits opportunities for major shifts absent a sudden incident. Realistic factors that could still alter odds include a major miscalculation during exercises, lethal escalation involving US allies such as the Philippines, or rapid deterioration tied to Taiwan developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$194,565Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.7% probability to no direct US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic stabilization efforts following the May 2026 US-China summit and subsequent trade measures that reduced immediate escalation risks. Both sides have prioritized crisis-management channels and avoided acute triggers in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea, despite ongoing PLA modernization and a July 2026 Chinese SLBM test demonstrating second-strike capabilities. US munitions constraints from other theaters and mutual deterrence further support the current consensus. The short remaining window through late 2026 limits opportunities for major shifts absent a sudden incident. Realistic factors that could still alter odds include a major miscalculation during exercises, lethal escalation involving US allies such as the Philippines, or rapid deterioration tied to Taiwan developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$194,565Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.7% probability to no direct US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic stabilization efforts following the May 2026 US-China summit and subsequent trade measures that reduced immediate escalation risks. Both sides have prioritized crisis-management channels and avoided acute triggers in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea, despite ongoing PLA modernization and a July 2026 Chinese SLBM test demonstrating second-strike capabilities. US munitions constraints from other theaters and mutual deterrence further support the current consensus. The short remaining window through late 2026 limits opportunities for major shifts absent a sudden incident. Realistic factors that could still alter odds include a major miscalculation during exercises, lethal escalation involving US allies such as the Philippines, or rapid deterioration tied to Taiwan developments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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