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Tecnologia·Big Tech

Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?

icon for Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?
Tecnologia·Big Tech

Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?

mai 31

jun 30

mai 31

jun 30

Anthropic 72.4%

Google 16%

OpenAI 8%

xAI 2.8%

Polymarket

$5,766,419 Vol.

Anthropic 72.4%

Google 16%

OpenAI 8%

xAI 2.8%

Polymarket

$5,766,419 Vol.

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$823,340 Vol.

72%

icon for Google

Google

$503,224 Vol.

16%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$330,115 Vol.

8%

icon for xAI

xAI

$1,053,484 Vol.

3%

icon for Meta

Meta

$127,160 Vol.

1%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$493,047 Vol.

<1%

icon for Amazon

Amazon

$153,508 Vol.

<1%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$292,839 Vol.

<1%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$360,397 Vol.

<1%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$350,769 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$462,676 Vol.

<1%

icon for Microsoft

Microsoft

$143,766 Vol.

<1%

icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$149,069 Vol.

<1%

icon for Meituan

Meituan

$371,283 Vol.

<1%

icon for Baidu

Baidu

$151,745 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance across Arena.ai leaderboards as of May 12. Anthropic's latest release on April 16 showcased superior agentic coding (e.g., 77%+ on SWE-bench), long-context reasoning, and multimodal vision, securing the top four spots in Text Arena with Elo scores above 1490—well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1490 at #6) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 High (1484 at #8). No major rival announcements have shifted standings in the past week, but Google's I/O previews and regulatory pre-release testing for xAI/Grok could introduce catalysts before resolution. xAI trails at 2.7% amid narrower strengths in creative prompts.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$5,766,419
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance across Arena.ai leaderboards as of May 12. Anthropic's latest release on April 16 showcased superior agentic coding (e.g., 77%+ on SWE-bench), long-context reasoning, and multimodal vision, securing the top four spots in Text Arena with Elo scores above 1490—well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1490 at #6) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 High (1484 at #8). No major rival announcements have shifted standings in the past week, but Google's I/O previews and regulatory pre-release testing for xAI/Grok could introduce catalysts before resolution. xAI trails at 2.7% amid narrower strengths in creative prompts.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$5,766,419
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 72%, followed by "Google" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?" has generated $5.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?" is "Anthropic" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.