Anthropic holds the strongest position at 60.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently lead LiveBench’s June 2026 release—the latest contamination-free benchmark with refreshed objective tasks across reasoning, coding, mathematics, and agentic categories—posting the highest overall scores around 83%. Traders view this as evidence of sustained frontier capability from Anthropic’s large language models relative to OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol at roughly 81%. With the October 31 resolution still months away, new model drops, scaling improvements, or benchmark refreshes from OpenAI, Google, or Chinese labs could narrow the gap, though recent leaderboard stability favors Anthropic maintaining the edge through consistent high-effort performance on evolving evaluation criteria.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no LiveBench (Geral) no final de outubro?
Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no LiveBench (Geral) no final de outubro?
Anthropic 61%
OpenAI 32%
DeepSeek <1%
ByteDance <1%
NOVO
NOVO
31 out 2026
Anthropic
61%
OpenAI
32%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Meta
1%
1%
Baidu
1%
Tencent
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Anthropic 61%
OpenAI 32%
DeepSeek <1%
ByteDance <1%
NOVO
NOVO
31 out 2026
Anthropic
$4,647 Vol.
61%
OpenAI
$1,085 Vol.
32%
DeepSeek
$177 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$235 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$217 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$240 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$224 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$245 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$177 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$187 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$187 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$175 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$256 Vol.
1%
Meta
$224 Vol.
1%
$153 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$236 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$235 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$185 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$207 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$230 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$128 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the strongest position at 60.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently lead LiveBench’s June 2026 release—the latest contamination-free benchmark with refreshed objective tasks across reasoning, coding, mathematics, and agentic categories—posting the highest overall scores around 83%. Traders view this as evidence of sustained frontier capability from Anthropic’s large language models relative to OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol at roughly 81%. With the October 31 resolution still months away, new model drops, scaling improvements, or benchmark refreshes from OpenAI, Google, or Chinese labs could narrow the gap, though recent leaderboard stability favors Anthropic maintaining the edge through consistent high-effort performance on evolving evaluation criteria.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Mercado Aberto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$9,649Data de Término
31 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the strongest position at 60.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently lead LiveBench’s June 2026 release—the latest contamination-free benchmark with refreshed objective tasks across reasoning, coding, mathematics, and agentic categories—posting the highest overall scores around 83%. Traders view this as evidence of sustained frontier capability from Anthropic’s large language models relative to OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol at roughly 81%. With the October 31 resolution still months away, new model drops, scaling improvements, or benchmark refreshes from OpenAI, Google, or Chinese labs could narrow the gap, though recent leaderboard stability favors Anthropic maintaining the edge through consistent high-effort performance on evolving evaluation criteria.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$9,649Data de Término
31 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the strongest position at 60.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently lead LiveBench’s June 2026 release—the latest contamination-free benchmark with refreshed objective tasks across reasoning, coding, mathematics, and agentic categories—posting the highest overall scores around 83%. Traders view this as evidence of sustained frontier capability from Anthropic’s large language models relative to OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol at roughly 81%. With the October 31 resolution still months away, new model drops, scaling improvements, or benchmark refreshes from OpenAI, Google, or Chinese labs could narrow the gap, though recent leaderboard stability favors Anthropic maintaining the edge through consistent high-effort performance on evolving evaluation criteria.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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