An active 2026 Pacific typhoon season, already featuring 16 named storms by early August, combined with Typhoon No. 15 (Chan-hom) tracking northwest toward eastern Honshu, underpins the 96.8% market-implied odds for landfall this month. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts show the system approaching the Pacific coast near the Kanto or Tohoku regions around August 11-12 before crossing the island, aligning with peak August formation rates of 4-7 systems and 3-6 approaches to Japan. Historical analogs and current steering patterns from subtropical ridges support high landfall likelihood. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include last-minute track shifts from upper-level troughs pushing the storm south or north of Honshu, or rapid weakening over cooler waters preventing official landfall classification, though model consensus currently favors impact.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoUm ciclone tropical atingirá Honshu em agosto de 2026?
Um ciclone tropical atingirá Honshu em agosto de 2026?
97% chance
NOVO
NOVO
1 set 2026
97% chance
NOVO
NOVO
1 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a tropical cyclone makes landfall on Honshu, Japan between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.An active 2026 Pacific typhoon season, already featuring 16 named storms by early August, combined with Typhoon No. 15 (Chan-hom) tracking northwest toward eastern Honshu, underpins the 96.8% market-implied odds for landfall this month. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts show the system approaching the Pacific coast near the Kanto or Tohoku regions around August 11-12 before crossing the island, aligning with peak August formation rates of 4-7 systems and 3-6 approaches to Japan. Historical analogs and current steering patterns from subtropical ridges support high landfall likelihood. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include last-minute track shifts from upper-level troughs pushing the storm south or north of Honshu, or rapid weakening over cooler waters preventing official landfall classification, though model consensus currently favors impact.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a tropical cyclone makes landfall on Honshu, Japan between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 10, 2026, 11:27 AM ET
Volume
$1,126Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 10, 2026, 11:27 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a tropical cyclone makes landfall on Honshu, Japan between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.An active 2026 Pacific typhoon season, already featuring 16 named storms by early August, combined with Typhoon No. 15 (Chan-hom) tracking northwest toward eastern Honshu, underpins the 96.8% market-implied odds for landfall this month. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts show the system approaching the Pacific coast near the Kanto or Tohoku regions around August 11-12 before crossing the island, aligning with peak August formation rates of 4-7 systems and 3-6 approaches to Japan. Historical analogs and current steering patterns from subtropical ridges support high landfall likelihood. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include last-minute track shifts from upper-level troughs pushing the storm south or north of Honshu, or rapid weakening over cooler waters preventing official landfall classification, though model consensus currently favors impact.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a tropical cyclone makes landfall on Honshu, Japan between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.
Volume
$1,126Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 10, 2026, 11:27 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...An active 2026 Pacific typhoon season, already featuring 16 named storms by early August, combined with Typhoon No. 15 (Chan-hom) tracking northwest toward eastern Honshu, underpins the 96.8% market-implied odds for landfall this month. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts show the system approaching the Pacific coast near the Kanto or Tohoku regions around August 11-12 before crossing the island, aligning with peak August formation rates of 4-7 systems and 3-6 approaches to Japan. Historical analogs and current steering patterns from subtropical ridges support high landfall likelihood. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include last-minute track shifts from upper-level troughs pushing the storm south or north of Honshu, or rapid weakening over cooler waters preventing official landfall classification, though model consensus currently favors impact.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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