The high market-implied probability of “No” for the Salvator Mundi appearing publicly by December 31 stems primarily from the painting’s extended absence from view since its 2017 auction and the absence of any confirmed exhibition timeline. Owned by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the work has remained in private storage—reportedly in Geneva—pending completion of major new museum projects tied to Saudi Vision 2030, including facilities in Riyadh and Al-‘Ula that were originally eyed for earlier openings but face ongoing construction delays. Past plans, such as the indefinitely postponed Louvre Abu Dhabi display, illustrate a pattern of deferral in favor of long-term institutional anchoring rather than short-term loans or temporary shows. With no Saudi cultural announcements or preparatory signals emerging in recent months, traders see insufficient momentum or infrastructure readiness to meet the year-end cutoff.