The absence of any confirmed exhibition plans or institutional announcements continues to anchor trader consensus around an 89.5% implied probability of “No.” Acquired by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in 2017 for a record $450.3 million, the Leonardo-attributed panel has remained in private storage—most recently reported in a Geneva freeport—since its canceled 2018 loan to Louvre Abu Dhabi. While positioned as the anchor object for a major new Riyadh museum tied to Saudi Vision 2030, construction timelines for that facility extend well beyond December 31, 2026, with no precursor loans, critic previews, or official statements emerging this year. Historical patterns of secrecy around high-profile private holdings and the lack of near-term catalysts reinforce the current market-implied odds.