The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation has already fulfilled the year's most prominent instance of such an action, with Maduro now facing US criminal charges. Subsequent developments through August have centered on counter-narcotics strikes against non-state cartels, limited operations against groups such as al-Shabaab in Africa, and the earlier 2026 campaign targeting Iranian leadership that resulted in a killing rather than capture. No official announcements, congressional authorizations, or intelligence signals indicate active planning or imminent operations against additional sitting heads of state. Diplomatic signals, including reduced joint exercises with South Korea amid warmer ties with North Korea's leadership, further align with a posture unlikely to produce another such event before year-end. Trader consensus at 94.5% for no reflects this absence of new catalysts in the remaining months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOs EUA capturarão outro líder mundial em 2026?
Os EUA capturarão outro líder mundial em 2026?
Sim
6% chance
$81,004 Vol.
$81,004 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Sim
6% chance
$81,004 Vol.
$81,004 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation has already fulfilled the year's most prominent instance of such an action, with Maduro now facing US criminal charges. Subsequent developments through August have centered on counter-narcotics strikes against non-state cartels, limited operations against groups such as al-Shabaab in Africa, and the earlier 2026 campaign targeting Iranian leadership that resulted in a killing rather than capture. No official announcements, congressional authorizations, or intelligence signals indicate active planning or imminent operations against additional sitting heads of state. Diplomatic signals, including reduced joint exercises with South Korea amid warmer ties with North Korea's leadership, further align with a posture unlikely to produce another such event before year-end. Trader consensus at 94.5% for no reflects this absence of new catalysts in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$81,004Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation has already fulfilled the year's most prominent instance of such an action, with Maduro now facing US criminal charges. Subsequent developments through August have centered on counter-narcotics strikes against non-state cartels, limited operations against groups such as al-Shabaab in Africa, and the earlier 2026 campaign targeting Iranian leadership that resulted in a killing rather than capture. No official announcements, congressional authorizations, or intelligence signals indicate active planning or imminent operations against additional sitting heads of state. Diplomatic signals, including reduced joint exercises with South Korea amid warmer ties with North Korea's leadership, further align with a posture unlikely to produce another such event before year-end. Trader consensus at 94.5% for no reflects this absence of new catalysts in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$81,004Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation has already fulfilled the year's most prominent instance of such an action, with Maduro now facing US criminal charges. Subsequent developments through August have centered on counter-narcotics strikes against non-state cartels, limited operations against groups such as al-Shabaab in Africa, and the earlier 2026 campaign targeting Iranian leadership that resulted in a killing rather than capture. No official announcements, congressional authorizations, or intelligence signals indicate active planning or imminent operations against additional sitting heads of state. Diplomatic signals, including reduced joint exercises with South Korea amid warmer ties with North Korea's leadership, further align with a posture unlikely to produce another such event before year-end. Trader consensus at 94.5% for no reflects this absence of new catalysts in the remaining months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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