Ongoing strong El Niño conditions, record ocean heat content, and persistent atmospheric warmth have driven August 2026 global mean surface temperatures toward the upper end of recent annual averages. Official analyses show July 2026 already at 1.47 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, with daily sea-surface temperatures reaching new highs near 21.1 °C in late August. Ensemble forecasts and model consensus indicate the monthly anomaly will likely finish in the 1.38–1.41 °C range once final ERA5 and GISS data are processed, consistent with the 2025–2026 warming trajectory of roughly 1.4 °C. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus reflects measured observations rather than long-term projections, though final resolution remains sensitive to the last few days of data and any post-processing adjustments by monitoring agencies.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоАвгуст 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC) (БОЛЕЕ ВЫСОКИЕ УДАРЫ)
Август 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC) (БОЛЕЕ ВЫСОКИЕ УДАРЫ)
1.38–1.41ºC 75%
1.42–1.45ºC 14%
1.34–1.37ºC 3.1%
>1.45ºC 1.4%
$17,094 Объем
$17,094 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
3%
1.38–1.41ºC
75%
1.42–1.45ºC
14%
>1.45ºC
1%
1.38–1.41ºC 75%
1.42–1.45ºC 14%
1.34–1.37ºC 3.1%
>1.45ºC 1.4%
$17,094 Объем
$17,094 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
<1.30ºC
$657 Объем
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Объем
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$2,737 Объем
3%
1.38–1.41ºC
$3,439 Объем
75%
1.42–1.45ºC
$7,521 Объем
14%
>1.45ºC
$1,278 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Ongoing strong El Niño conditions, record ocean heat content, and persistent atmospheric warmth have driven August 2026 global mean surface temperatures toward the upper end of recent annual averages. Official analyses show July 2026 already at 1.47 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, with daily sea-surface temperatures reaching new highs near 21.1 °C in late August. Ensemble forecasts and model consensus indicate the monthly anomaly will likely finish in the 1.38–1.41 °C range once final ERA5 and GISS data are processed, consistent with the 2025–2026 warming trajectory of roughly 1.4 °C. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus reflects measured observations rather than long-term projections, though final resolution remains sensitive to the last few days of data and any post-processing adjustments by monitoring agencies.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Открытие рынка: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Объем
$17,094Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Ongoing strong El Niño conditions, record ocean heat content, and persistent atmospheric warmth have driven August 2026 global mean surface temperatures toward the upper end of recent annual averages. Official analyses show July 2026 already at 1.47 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, with daily sea-surface temperatures reaching new highs near 21.1 °C in late August. Ensemble forecasts and model consensus indicate the monthly anomaly will likely finish in the 1.38–1.41 °C range once final ERA5 and GISS data are processed, consistent with the 2025–2026 warming trajectory of roughly 1.4 °C. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus reflects measured observations rather than long-term projections, though final resolution remains sensitive to the last few days of data and any post-processing adjustments by monitoring agencies.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Объем
$17,094Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing strong El Niño conditions, record ocean heat content, and persistent atmospheric warmth have driven August 2026 global mean surface temperatures toward the upper end of recent annual averages. Official analyses show July 2026 already at 1.47 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, with daily sea-surface temperatures reaching new highs near 21.1 °C in late August. Ensemble forecasts and model consensus indicate the monthly anomaly will likely finish in the 1.38–1.41 °C range once final ERA5 and GISS data are processed, consistent with the 2025–2026 warming trajectory of roughly 1.4 °C. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus reflects measured observations rather than long-term projections, though final resolution remains sensitive to the last few days of data and any post-processing adjustments by monitoring agencies.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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