**Trader consensus on the Central Bank of Colombia’s September meeting assigns an 81.5% implied probability to no change in the 12% policy rate, reflecting the board’s recent decision to hold steady at its July 31 meeting amid still-elevated inflation.** Annual CPI eased modestly to 6.03% in July from 6.14% in June, below forecasts, yet remains well above the 3% target, with end-2026 expectations near 6.6%. The split July vote and emphasis on data dependence, combined with 2.5% GDP growth projections and a stronger peso, support the view that monetary policy will stay restrictive without immediate adjustment. August inflation data due in early September and any fresh signals on external risks such as geopolitical tensions represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift the modest probabilities attached to 25 bp moves.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 83%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 8.2%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. 7.2%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 4.5%
$21,595 Объем
$21,595 Объем
Снижение более чем на 50 б.п.
<1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
4%
Без изменений
83%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
8%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
7%
Без изменений 83%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 8.2%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. 7.2%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 4.5%
$21,595 Объем
$21,595 Объем
Снижение более чем на 50 б.п.
<1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
4%
Без изменений
83%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
8%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
7%
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the Central Bank of Colombia’s September meeting assigns an 81.5% implied probability to no change in the 12% policy rate, reflecting the board’s recent decision to hold steady at its July 31 meeting amid still-elevated inflation.** Annual CPI eased modestly to 6.03% in July from 6.14% in June, below forecasts, yet remains well above the 3% target, with end-2026 expectations near 6.6%. The split July vote and emphasis on data dependence, combined with 2.5% GDP growth projections and a stronger peso, support the view that monetary policy will stay restrictive without immediate adjustment. August inflation data due in early September and any fresh signals on external risks such as geopolitical tensions represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift the modest probabilities attached to 25 bp moves.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено


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