Recent data showing Core PCE YoY easing to 3.3% in June from 3.4% in May, combined with economist consensus forecasts holding steady at 3.3% for July, underpin the 72.5% implied probability for that outcome ahead of the August 26 release. Cleveland Fed nowcasts align closely around 3.29%, reflecting moderating underlying price pressures amid stable labor market conditions and contained goods inflation. The 28.5% odds on 3.2% capture residual uncertainty over potential further softening in services components, while sub-3.0% or 3.4%+ scenarios remain remote given the narrow historical range. Trader positioning in this market aggregates real-capital views on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, with the upcoming print serving as a key input for near-term monetary policy expectations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено3.3% 73%
3.2% 29%
≤3.0% <1%
3.1% <1%
$37,651 Объем
$37,651 Объем
26 авг. 2026 г.
≤3.0%
<1%
3.1%
<1%
3.2%
29%
3.3%
73%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%+
<1%
3.3% 73%
3.2% 29%
≤3.0% <1%
3.1% <1%
$37,651 Объем
$37,651 Объем
26 авг. 2026 г.
≤3.0%
$1,314 Объем
<1%
3.1%
$1,226 Объем
<1%
3.2%
$10,469 Объем
29%
3.3%
$21,513 Объем
73%
3.4%
$1,023 Объем
<1%
3.5%
$942 Объем
<1%
3.6%+
$1,163 Объем
<1%
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent data showing Core PCE YoY easing to 3.3% in June from 3.4% in May, combined with economist consensus forecasts holding steady at 3.3% for July, underpin the 72.5% implied probability for that outcome ahead of the August 26 release. Cleveland Fed nowcasts align closely around 3.29%, reflecting moderating underlying price pressures amid stable labor market conditions and contained goods inflation. The 28.5% odds on 3.2% capture residual uncertainty over potential further softening in services components, while sub-3.0% or 3.4%+ scenarios remain remote given the narrow historical range. Trader positioning in this market aggregates real-capital views on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, with the upcoming print serving as a key input for near-term monetary policy expectations.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Объем
$37,651Дата окончания
26 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent data showing Core PCE YoY easing to 3.3% in June from 3.4% in May, combined with economist consensus forecasts holding steady at 3.3% for July, underpin the 72.5% implied probability for that outcome ahead of the August 26 release. Cleveland Fed nowcasts align closely around 3.29%, reflecting moderating underlying price pressures amid stable labor market conditions and contained goods inflation. The 28.5% odds on 3.2% capture residual uncertainty over potential further softening in services components, while sub-3.0% or 3.4%+ scenarios remain remote given the narrow historical range. Trader positioning in this market aggregates real-capital views on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, with the upcoming print serving as a key input for near-term monetary policy expectations.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Объем
$37,651Дата окончания
26 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent data showing Core PCE YoY easing to 3.3% in June from 3.4% in May, combined with economist consensus forecasts holding steady at 3.3% for July, underpin the 72.5% implied probability for that outcome ahead of the August 26 release. Cleveland Fed nowcasts align closely around 3.29%, reflecting moderating underlying price pressures amid stable labor market conditions and contained goods inflation. The 28.5% odds on 3.2% capture residual uncertainty over potential further softening in services components, while sub-3.0% or 3.4%+ scenarios remain remote given the narrow historical range. Trader positioning in this market aggregates real-capital views on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, with the upcoming print serving as a key input for near-term monetary policy expectations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы