Ontario Premier Doug Ford reaffirmed his intention to lead the Progressive Conservative Party into a fourth term at the January 2026 convention, citing the government's record and projecting another majority in the fixed-date provincial election. No leadership review, caucus revolt, or resignation signals have surfaced in recent months, even as polls show modest softening in support tied to the private-jet purchase controversy. Historical precedent favors long-serving incumbents securing renomination absent major scandal or internal pressure. Traders reflect this stability in the 87% implied probability against an exit by December 31, viewing continuity as the baseline outcome until new catalysts emerge.