Recent FBI execution of search warrants on August 20, seizing electronic devices from former Representative Eric Swalwell at San Francisco International Airport and at his Washington residence, has intensified a federal civil rights probe into sexual assault allegations under statutes such as Section 242. These actions follow his April 2026 resignation from Congress and withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race amid accusations from multiple women, which also prompted separate ongoing criminal inquiries by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department. Swalwell has denied the claims. Federal investigations of this nature typically involve extended review of seized materials before any arrest decision, with no charges filed to date and limited precedent for rapid resolution within the five-week window to September 30. Trader consensus reflected in the 77.5% probability on “No” aligns with the procedural timelines and evidentiary thresholds required in such cases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
23% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
Да
23% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent FBI execution of search warrants on August 20, seizing electronic devices from former Representative Eric Swalwell at San Francisco International Airport and at his Washington residence, has intensified a federal civil rights probe into sexual assault allegations under statutes such as Section 242. These actions follow his April 2026 resignation from Congress and withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race amid accusations from multiple women, which also prompted separate ongoing criminal inquiries by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department. Swalwell has denied the claims. Federal investigations of this nature typically involve extended review of seized materials before any arrest decision, with no charges filed to date and limited precedent for rapid resolution within the five-week window to September 30. Trader consensus reflected in the 77.5% probability on “No” aligns with the procedural timelines and evidentiary thresholds required in such cases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Объем
$22Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent FBI execution of search warrants on August 20, seizing electronic devices from former Representative Eric Swalwell at San Francisco International Airport and at his Washington residence, has intensified a federal civil rights probe into sexual assault allegations under statutes such as Section 242. These actions follow his April 2026 resignation from Congress and withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race amid accusations from multiple women, which also prompted separate ongoing criminal inquiries by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department. Swalwell has denied the claims. Federal investigations of this nature typically involve extended review of seized materials before any arrest decision, with no charges filed to date and limited precedent for rapid resolution within the five-week window to September 30. Trader consensus reflected in the 77.5% probability on “No” aligns with the procedural timelines and evidentiary thresholds required in such cases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$22Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent FBI execution of search warrants on August 20, seizing electronic devices from former Representative Eric Swalwell at San Francisco International Airport and at his Washington residence, has intensified a federal civil rights probe into sexual assault allegations under statutes such as Section 242. These actions follow his April 2026 resignation from Congress and withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race amid accusations from multiple women, which also prompted separate ongoing criminal inquiries by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department. Swalwell has denied the claims. Federal investigations of this nature typically involve extended review of seized materials before any arrest decision, with no charges filed to date and limited precedent for rapid resolution within the five-week window to September 30. Trader consensus reflected in the 77.5% probability on “No” aligns with the procedural timelines and evidentiary thresholds required in such cases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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