Recent U.S. Department of Justice preparations to seek an indictment against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro for his alleged role in the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue plane shootdown reflect heightened bilateral tensions under the current administration. These steps, reported in mid-May 2026 and linked to broader pressure on Havana, have no direct bearing on physical custody, as Cuba maintains no extradition treaty with the United States and Cuban authorities continue to protect the 94-year-old former defense minister and president in Havana. No military or law-enforcement operation targeting his apprehension has been announced or appears feasible before the June 30 resolution date. Trader assessments of a low probability for U.S. custody therefore rest on the absence of diplomatic leverage or enforcement mechanisms that could overcome these structural barriers within the short timeline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 июн. 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. Department of Justice preparations to seek an indictment against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro for his alleged role in the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue plane shootdown reflect heightened bilateral tensions under the current administration. These steps, reported in mid-May 2026 and linked to broader pressure on Havana, have no direct bearing on physical custody, as Cuba maintains no extradition treaty with the United States and Cuban authorities continue to protect the 94-year-old former defense minister and president in Havana. No military or law-enforcement operation targeting his apprehension has been announced or appears feasible before the June 30 resolution date. Trader assessments of a low probability for U.S. custody therefore rest on the absence of diplomatic leverage or enforcement mechanisms that could overcome these structural barriers within the short timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 18, 2026, 10:10 AM ET
Объем
$904Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 18, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. Department of Justice preparations to seek an indictment against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro for his alleged role in the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue plane shootdown reflect heightened bilateral tensions under the current administration. These steps, reported in mid-May 2026 and linked to broader pressure on Havana, have no direct bearing on physical custody, as Cuba maintains no extradition treaty with the United States and Cuban authorities continue to protect the 94-year-old former defense minister and president in Havana. No military or law-enforcement operation targeting his apprehension has been announced or appears feasible before the June 30 resolution date. Trader assessments of a low probability for U.S. custody therefore rest on the absence of diplomatic leverage or enforcement mechanisms that could overcome these structural barriers within the short timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$904Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 18, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. Department of Justice preparations to seek an indictment against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro for his alleged role in the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue plane shootdown reflect heightened bilateral tensions under the current administration. These steps, reported in mid-May 2026 and linked to broader pressure on Havana, have no direct bearing on physical custody, as Cuba maintains no extradition treaty with the United States and Cuban authorities continue to protect the 94-year-old former defense minister and president in Havana. No military or law-enforcement operation targeting his apprehension has been announced or appears feasible before the June 30 resolution date. Trader assessments of a low probability for U.S. custody therefore rest on the absence of diplomatic leverage or enforcement mechanisms that could overcome these structural barriers within the short timeline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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