Recent polls in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District Republican primary show the race between incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein locked in a dead heat, with some surveys placing Gallrein narrowly ahead and others showing a one-point Massie edge or a statistical tie. This tight positioning stems from Gallrein’s personal recruitment by the president and strong MAGA alignment, which have mobilized loyalist voters, offset by Massie’s long incumbency, superior fundraising, and established base among fiscal conservatives. Late-campaign polling shifts and Gallrein’s decision to skip debates have kept uncertainty high, sustaining elevated trader probabilities for sub-three-point margins while leaving room for final turnout among northern Kentucky Republican voters to determine any separation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоKY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory
KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory
Галрейн 6-9% 24%
Gallrein <3% 23%
Massie <3% 23%
Massie 6%+ 23%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
19 мая 2026 г.
Галлрайн 9%+
14%
Галрейн 6-9%
22%
Gallrein 3-6%
18%
Gallrein <3%
23%
Massie <3%
23%
Massie 3-6%
18%
Massie 6%+
23%
Other
5%
Галрейн 6-9% 24%
Gallrein <3% 23%
Massie <3% 23%
Massie 6%+ 23%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
19 мая 2026 г.
Галлрайн 9%+
$248 Объем
14%
Галрейн 6-9%
$145 Объем
22%
Gallrein 3-6%
$20 Объем
18%
Gallrein <3%
$20 Объем
23%
Massie <3%
$20 Объем
23%
Massie 3-6%
$40 Объем
18%
Massie 6%+
$20 Объем
23%
Other
$227 Объем
5%
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District Republican primary show the race between incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein locked in a dead heat, with some surveys placing Gallrein narrowly ahead and others showing a one-point Massie edge or a statistical tie. This tight positioning stems from Gallrein’s personal recruitment by the president and strong MAGA alignment, which have mobilized loyalist voters, offset by Massie’s long incumbency, superior fundraising, and established base among fiscal conservatives. Late-campaign polling shifts and Gallrein’s decision to skip debates have kept uncertainty high, sustaining elevated trader probabilities for sub-three-point margins while leaving room for final turnout among northern Kentucky Republican voters to determine any separation.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Открытие рынка: May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ET
Объем
$741Дата окончания
19 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District Republican primary show the race between incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein locked in a dead heat, with some surveys placing Gallrein narrowly ahead and others showing a one-point Massie edge or a statistical tie. This tight positioning stems from Gallrein’s personal recruitment by the president and strong MAGA alignment, which have mobilized loyalist voters, offset by Massie’s long incumbency, superior fundraising, and established base among fiscal conservatives. Late-campaign polling shifts and Gallrein’s decision to skip debates have kept uncertainty high, sustaining elevated trader probabilities for sub-three-point margins while leaving room for final turnout among northern Kentucky Republican voters to determine any separation.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Объем
$741Дата окончания
19 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District Republican primary show the race between incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein locked in a dead heat, with some surveys placing Gallrein narrowly ahead and others showing a one-point Massie edge or a statistical tie. This tight positioning stems from Gallrein’s personal recruitment by the president and strong MAGA alignment, which have mobilized loyalist voters, offset by Massie’s long incumbency, superior fundraising, and established base among fiscal conservatives. Late-campaign polling shifts and Gallrein’s decision to skip debates have kept uncertainty high, sustaining elevated trader probabilities for sub-three-point margins while leaving room for final turnout among northern Kentucky Republican voters to determine any separation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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