Trader consensus around 2.0–2.5% real GDP growth for 2026 reflects balanced risks between AI-driven capital expenditures and productivity gains supporting above-trend expansion versus headwinds from tariffs, reduced immigration, and energy price pressures tied to geopolitical tensions. Official projections cluster near this range, with the CBO at 2.2%, the Fed’s June median at 2.2–2.3%, and private forecasters such as Vanguard at 2.3% and S&P Global at 2.1%. Recent data show a shift toward investment-led growth as consumer affordability constraints emerge, while sticky core inflation near 3% keeps the Fed on hold. The tight spread between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins underscores uncertainty over the net impact of fiscal measures, trade adjustments, and labor force dynamics through year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРост ВВП в 2026 году
Рост ВВП в 2026 году
2,0–2,5% 31%
1,5–2,0% 29.3%
>2,5% 20%
1,0–1,5% 9.7%
$58,224 Объем
$58,224 Объем
29 янв. 2027 г.
<0,5%
2%
0,5–1,0%
1%
1,0–1,5%
10%
1,5–2,0%
29%
2,0–2,5%
31%
>2,5%
20%
2,0–2,5% 31%
1,5–2,0% 29.3%
>2,5% 20%
1,0–1,5% 9.7%
$58,224 Объем
$58,224 Объем
29 янв. 2027 г.
<0,5%
$7,469 Объем
2%
0,5–1,0%
$17,263 Объем
1%
1,0–1,5%
$3,824 Объем
10%
1,5–2,0%
$6,632 Объем
29%
2,0–2,5%
$7,095 Объем
31%
>2,5%
$15,941 Объем
20%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus around 2.0–2.5% real GDP growth for 2026 reflects balanced risks between AI-driven capital expenditures and productivity gains supporting above-trend expansion versus headwinds from tariffs, reduced immigration, and energy price pressures tied to geopolitical tensions. Official projections cluster near this range, with the CBO at 2.2%, the Fed’s June median at 2.2–2.3%, and private forecasters such as Vanguard at 2.3% and S&P Global at 2.1%. Recent data show a shift toward investment-led growth as consumer affordability constraints emerge, while sticky core inflation near 3% keeps the Fed on hold. The tight spread between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins underscores uncertainty over the net impact of fiscal measures, trade adjustments, and labor force dynamics through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Объем
$58,224Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus around 2.0–2.5% real GDP growth for 2026 reflects balanced risks between AI-driven capital expenditures and productivity gains supporting above-trend expansion versus headwinds from tariffs, reduced immigration, and energy price pressures tied to geopolitical tensions. Official projections cluster near this range, with the CBO at 2.2%, the Fed’s June median at 2.2–2.3%, and private forecasters such as Vanguard at 2.3% and S&P Global at 2.1%. Recent data show a shift toward investment-led growth as consumer affordability constraints emerge, while sticky core inflation near 3% keeps the Fed on hold. The tight spread between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins underscores uncertainty over the net impact of fiscal measures, trade adjustments, and labor force dynamics through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$58,224Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus around 2.0–2.5% real GDP growth for 2026 reflects balanced risks between AI-driven capital expenditures and productivity gains supporting above-trend expansion versus headwinds from tariffs, reduced immigration, and energy price pressures tied to geopolitical tensions. Official projections cluster near this range, with the CBO at 2.2%, the Fed’s June median at 2.2–2.3%, and private forecasters such as Vanguard at 2.3% and S&P Global at 2.1%. Recent data show a shift toward investment-led growth as consumer affordability constraints emerge, while sticky core inflation near 3% keeps the Fed on hold. The tight spread between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins underscores uncertainty over the net impact of fiscal measures, trade adjustments, and labor force dynamics through year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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