Ensemble forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC Weather cluster around a 23–24°C maximum for Warsaw on August 13, with the market assigning roughly 44% and 39% implied probabilities respectively. Stable high pressure and light northeasterly winds promote modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, aligning with mid-August climatology where average highs reach 23–25°C. Without strong warm-air advection or clear-sky amplification, temperatures are unlikely to exceed 25°C. The narrow spread between the leading bins reflects minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing, while surface observations confirm conditions remain within the typical range for the Chopin Airport measurement window. Updated guidance through the afternoon will refine these probabilities ahead of official resolution.