Recent attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with U.S. threats of an indefinite naval blockade and stalled diplomatic talks, have driven daily transits to single-digit or low-teen levels, far below the pre-crisis baseline of 60–130 ships. Kpler data show averages near 12 per day in August, with some days recording as few as two transits amid spikes in war-risk insurance premiums and AIS-dark routing. Trader consensus, reflected in the 59% implied probability for the 25–49 range, prices in sustained deterrence from commercial operators wary of escalation risks, while the 37.5% on sub-25 captures further downside from enforcement actions. Brent crude near $88 underscores supply sensitivity, with resolution on August 23 dependent on any last-minute corridor agreements.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю с 17 августа?
Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю с 17 августа?
25-49 59%
<25 38%
50-74 3.5%
100+ <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 авг. 2026 г.
<25
38%
25-49
59%
50-74
4%
75-99
<1%
100+
1%
25-49 59%
<25 38%
50-74 3.5%
100+ <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 авг. 2026 г.
<25
$2,234 Объем
38%
25-49
$1,496 Объем
59%
50-74
$627 Объем
4%
75-99
$878 Объем
<1%
100+
$468 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with U.S. threats of an indefinite naval blockade and stalled diplomatic talks, have driven daily transits to single-digit or low-teen levels, far below the pre-crisis baseline of 60–130 ships. Kpler data show averages near 12 per day in August, with some days recording as few as two transits amid spikes in war-risk insurance premiums and AIS-dark routing. Trader consensus, reflected in the 59% implied probability for the 25–49 range, prices in sustained deterrence from commercial operators wary of escalation risks, while the 37.5% on sub-25 captures further downside from enforcement actions. Brent crude near $88 underscores supply sensitivity, with resolution on August 23 dependent on any last-minute corridor agreements.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Объем
$5,702Дата окончания
23 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with U.S. threats of an indefinite naval blockade and stalled diplomatic talks, have driven daily transits to single-digit or low-teen levels, far below the pre-crisis baseline of 60–130 ships. Kpler data show averages near 12 per day in August, with some days recording as few as two transits amid spikes in war-risk insurance premiums and AIS-dark routing. Trader consensus, reflected in the 59% implied probability for the 25–49 range, prices in sustained deterrence from commercial operators wary of escalation risks, while the 37.5% on sub-25 captures further downside from enforcement actions. Brent crude near $88 underscores supply sensitivity, with resolution on August 23 dependent on any last-minute corridor agreements.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$5,702Дата окончания
23 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with U.S. threats of an indefinite naval blockade and stalled diplomatic talks, have driven daily transits to single-digit or low-teen levels, far below the pre-crisis baseline of 60–130 ships. Kpler data show averages near 12 per day in August, with some days recording as few as two transits amid spikes in war-risk insurance premiums and AIS-dark routing. Trader consensus, reflected in the 59% implied probability for the 25–49 range, prices in sustained deterrence from commercial operators wary of escalation risks, while the 37.5% on sub-25 captures further downside from enforcement actions. Brent crude near $88 underscores supply sensitivity, with resolution on August 23 dependent on any last-minute corridor agreements.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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