Traders view the week of May 15–22, 2026 as closely contested between Khamenei issuing fewer than five posts or five to nine posts, with both outcomes priced in the mid-to-high 40s. As Supreme Leader of Iran, his official channel activity typically remains low absent major diplomatic announcements, regional security developments, or formal statements on foreign policy. No verified escalations, summits, or high-stakes negotiations have occurred in the past several days that would drive elevated volume. This pattern of measured communications, consistent with historical posting rates outside acute events, leaves the two leading bins nearly even while longer ranges trade well below 10 percent.