Recent model runs reveal tight uncertainty around Jinan’s minimum temperature on August 30, with ensembles split on whether nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies will push readings to 20 °C or whether residual warm advection and increased cloud cover will hold values at 22 °C or higher. The China Meteorological Administration’s latest guidance and global models such as ECMWF and GFS show only modest differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed that separate these thresholds. Historical late-August climatology for Jinan places typical lows near 21–23 °C, so any deviation hinges on the exact passage of a weak frontal boundary or high-pressure ridge. Updated short-range forecasts and surface observations expected overnight will likely refine the range before resolution.