Keir Starmer faces mounting pressure within the Labour Party following heavy losses in recent local elections, which have intensified speculation about an imminent leadership transition. This has elevated Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham as the frontrunner, with his cleared path to contest the Makerfield by-election positioning him to enter Parliament and mount a challenge. Other Labour figures, including Wes Streeting after his cabinet resignation and Angela Rayner following clearance of prior tax matters, remain in contention alongside Ed Miliband and Al Carns. Traders appear to price in a high likelihood of a change this year, reflected in the modest probability assigned to no new prime minister taking office in 2026, while lower odds for opposition figures like Nigel Farage underscore Labour's current parliamentary dominance. Upcoming by-election results and any further ministerial moves could further shift these assessments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЭнди Бёрнем 56.5%
Новый премьер-министр не будет назначен в 2026 году 12%
Уэс Стритинг 10%
Анджела Рейнэр 10%
$7,258,026 Объем
$7,258,026 Объем
Энди Бёрнем
57%
Новый премьер-министр не будет назначен в 2026 году
12%
Уэс Стритинг
10%
Анджела Рейнэр
10%
Эд Милибэнд
7%
Ал Карнс
4%
Найджел Фараж
1%
Шабана Махмуд
1%
Иветт Купер
1%
Люси Пауэлл
<1%
Руперт Лоу
<1%
Рэйчел Ривз
<1%
Кеми Баденох
<1%
Борис Джонсон
<1%
Эд Дейви
<1%
Бриджет Филипсон
<1%
Роберт Дженрик
<1%
Дэвид Лемми
<1%
Джеймс Клеверли
<1%
Даррен Джонс
<1%
Джон Хили
<1%
Энди Бёрнем 56.5%
Новый премьер-министр не будет назначен в 2026 году 12%
Уэс Стритинг 10%
Анджела Рейнэр 10%
$7,258,026 Объем
$7,258,026 Объем
Энди Бёрнем
57%
Новый премьер-министр не будет назначен в 2026 году
12%
Уэс Стритинг
10%
Анджела Рейнэр
10%
Эд Милибэнд
7%
Ал Карнс
4%
Найджел Фараж
1%
Шабана Махмуд
1%
Иветт Купер
1%
Люси Пауэлл
<1%
Руперт Лоу
<1%
Рэйчел Ривз
<1%
Кеми Баденох
<1%
Борис Джонсон
<1%
Эд Дейви
<1%
Бриджет Филипсон
<1%
Роберт Дженрик
<1%
Дэвид Лемми
<1%
Джеймс Клеверли
<1%
Даррен Джонс
<1%
Джон Хили
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Keir Starmer faces mounting pressure within the Labour Party following heavy losses in recent local elections, which have intensified speculation about an imminent leadership transition. This has elevated Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham as the frontrunner, with his cleared path to contest the Makerfield by-election positioning him to enter Parliament and mount a challenge. Other Labour figures, including Wes Streeting after his cabinet resignation and Angela Rayner following clearance of prior tax matters, remain in contention alongside Ed Miliband and Al Carns. Traders appear to price in a high likelihood of a change this year, reflected in the modest probability assigned to no new prime minister taking office in 2026, while lower odds for opposition figures like Nigel Farage underscore Labour's current parliamentary dominance. Upcoming by-election results and any further ministerial moves could further shift these assessments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы