President Aleksandar Vučić’s repeated public signals since 2025 that snap parliamentary elections will occur in 2026, combined with sustained student-led protests demanding an early vote, underpin the 82.5% implied probability for a poll before the legal deadline of December 2027. The last National Assembly election took place in December 2023, and the current mandate runs until the end of 2027, but Vučić has floated timelines including June or autumn 2026 during consultations with coalition partners and after his Serbian Progressive Party’s strong March 2026 local election results. Ongoing demonstrations triggered by the 2024 Novi Sad station collapse continue to pressure the government, while the absence of formal dissolution leaves open only narrow scenarios for delay. Traders view these presidential commitments and protest dynamics as the dominant drivers of near-term resolution.