Traders assign a 76.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will normalize by December 31 because the April 8 ceasefire has held amid sustained U.S.-led diplomatic pressure and the start of mine-clearance operations, even as daily transits remain at roughly 5–10% of pre-conflict levels of 125–140 vessels. Persistent insurance withdrawals and roughly 1,550 stranded ships continue to constrain flows of 20% of global oil and LNG, yet the economic costs—evident in elevated crude prices and supply-chain rerouting—are pushing stakeholders toward resolution. Market pricing reflects expectations that clearance timelines and incremental security assurances will restore commercial viability well before year-end, consistent with precedents for chokepoint reopenings following major geopolitical events. Key near-term catalysts include further U.S.-Iran talks and completion of initial mine-sweeping phases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$137,590 Объем
$137,590 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
$137,590 Объем
$137,590 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Traders assign a 76.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will normalize by December 31 because the April 8 ceasefire has held amid sustained U.S.-led diplomatic pressure and the start of mine-clearance operations, even as daily transits remain at roughly 5–10% of pre-conflict levels of 125–140 vessels. Persistent insurance withdrawals and roughly 1,550 stranded ships continue to constrain flows of 20% of global oil and LNG, yet the economic costs—evident in elevated crude prices and supply-chain rerouting—are pushing stakeholders toward resolution. Market pricing reflects expectations that clearance timelines and incremental security assurances will restore commercial viability well before year-end, consistent with precedents for chokepoint reopenings following major geopolitical events. Key near-term catalysts include further U.S.-Iran talks and completion of initial mine-sweeping phases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Объем
$137,590Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Traders assign a 76.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will normalize by December 31 because the April 8 ceasefire has held amid sustained U.S.-led diplomatic pressure and the start of mine-clearance operations, even as daily transits remain at roughly 5–10% of pre-conflict levels of 125–140 vessels. Persistent insurance withdrawals and roughly 1,550 stranded ships continue to constrain flows of 20% of global oil and LNG, yet the economic costs—evident in elevated crude prices and supply-chain rerouting—are pushing stakeholders toward resolution. Market pricing reflects expectations that clearance timelines and incremental security assurances will restore commercial viability well before year-end, consistent with precedents for chokepoint reopenings following major geopolitical events. Key near-term catalysts include further U.S.-Iran talks and completion of initial mine-sweeping phases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$137,590Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 76.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will normalize by December 31 because the April 8 ceasefire has held amid sustained U.S.-led diplomatic pressure and the start of mine-clearance operations, even as daily transits remain at roughly 5–10% of pre-conflict levels of 125–140 vessels. Persistent insurance withdrawals and roughly 1,550 stranded ships continue to constrain flows of 20% of global oil and LNG, yet the economic costs—evident in elevated crude prices and supply-chain rerouting—are pushing stakeholders toward resolution. Market pricing reflects expectations that clearance timelines and incremental security assurances will restore commercial viability well before year-end, consistent with precedents for chokepoint reopenings following major geopolitical events. Key near-term catalysts include further U.S.-Iran talks and completion of initial mine-sweeping phases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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