President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield explosive activities by both nations, initially raised expectations for a possible end to the 1992 moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials framed the order as potentially limited to subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield underground detonations, which require 24–36 months of preparation and face significant technical, budgetary, and diplomatic hurdles. Congressional oversight of National Nuclear Security Administration funding and stockpile stewardship programs, combined with ongoing U.S. accusations of Chinese test-site activity as recently as 2020, continue to shape trader assessments of near-term explosive testing probability. No yield-producing test has occurred since the statements, and market pricing reflects the gap between signaling and executable policy within the 2026 window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$768,767 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
30 сентября 2026 года
1%
31 декабря 2026 года
4%
$768,767 Объем
30 сентября 2026 года
$57,189 Объем
1%
31 декабря 2026 года
$52,068 Объем
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield explosive activities by both nations, initially raised expectations for a possible end to the 1992 moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials framed the order as potentially limited to subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield underground detonations, which require 24–36 months of preparation and face significant technical, budgetary, and diplomatic hurdles. Congressional oversight of National Nuclear Security Administration funding and stockpile stewardship programs, combined with ongoing U.S. accusations of Chinese test-site activity as recently as 2020, continue to shape trader assessments of near-term explosive testing probability. No yield-producing test has occurred since the statements, and market pricing reflects the gap between signaling and executable policy within the 2026 window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$768,767Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield explosive activities by both nations, initially raised expectations for a possible end to the 1992 moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials framed the order as potentially limited to subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield underground detonations, which require 24–36 months of preparation and face significant technical, budgetary, and diplomatic hurdles. Congressional oversight of National Nuclear Security Administration funding and stockpile stewardship programs, combined with ongoing U.S. accusations of Chinese test-site activity as recently as 2020, continue to shape trader assessments of near-term explosive testing probability. No yield-producing test has occurred since the statements, and market pricing reflects the gap between signaling and executable policy within the 2026 window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$768,767Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield explosive activities by both nations, initially raised expectations for a possible end to the 1992 moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials framed the order as potentially limited to subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield underground detonations, which require 24–36 months of preparation and face significant technical, budgetary, and diplomatic hurdles. Congressional oversight of National Nuclear Security Administration funding and stockpile stewardship programs, combined with ongoing U.S. accusations of Chinese test-site activity as recently as 2020, continue to shape trader assessments of near-term explosive testing probability. No yield-producing test has occurred since the statements, and market pricing reflects the gap between signaling and executable policy within the 2026 window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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