US allies face substantial structural, diplomatic, and technical barriers to acquiring nuclear weapons by the end of 2026. Most remain bound by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, subject to US security guarantees, and engaged in ongoing non-proliferation diplomacy. Recent developments, including the July 2026 US-Saudi 123 agreement focused exclusively on civilian nuclear energy under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards, underscore continued emphasis on peaceful programs rather than weapons capabilities. Discussions in South Korea and Japan center on alliance assurance and hedging options but have produced no verified weapons development timelines. The expiration of New START and broader nuclear modernization efforts have not altered ally restraint or triggered new programs capable of rapid breakout. Trader consensus at 94% for “No” aligns with the absence of confirmed triggers or accelerated proliferation paths in the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
6% вероятность
$209,398 Объем
$209,398 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
6% вероятность
$209,398 Объем
$209,398 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US allies face substantial structural, diplomatic, and technical barriers to acquiring nuclear weapons by the end of 2026. Most remain bound by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, subject to US security guarantees, and engaged in ongoing non-proliferation diplomacy. Recent developments, including the July 2026 US-Saudi 123 agreement focused exclusively on civilian nuclear energy under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards, underscore continued emphasis on peaceful programs rather than weapons capabilities. Discussions in South Korea and Japan center on alliance assurance and hedging options but have produced no verified weapons development timelines. The expiration of New START and broader nuclear modernization efforts have not altered ally restraint or triggered new programs capable of rapid breakout. Trader consensus at 94% for “No” aligns with the absence of confirmed triggers or accelerated proliferation paths in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Объем
$209,398Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US allies face substantial structural, diplomatic, and technical barriers to acquiring nuclear weapons by the end of 2026. Most remain bound by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, subject to US security guarantees, and engaged in ongoing non-proliferation diplomacy. Recent developments, including the July 2026 US-Saudi 123 agreement focused exclusively on civilian nuclear energy under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards, underscore continued emphasis on peaceful programs rather than weapons capabilities. Discussions in South Korea and Japan center on alliance assurance and hedging options but have produced no verified weapons development timelines. The expiration of New START and broader nuclear modernization efforts have not altered ally restraint or triggered new programs capable of rapid breakout. Trader consensus at 94% for “No” aligns with the absence of confirmed triggers or accelerated proliferation paths in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$209,398Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US allies face substantial structural, diplomatic, and technical barriers to acquiring nuclear weapons by the end of 2026. Most remain bound by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, subject to US security guarantees, and engaged in ongoing non-proliferation diplomacy. Recent developments, including the July 2026 US-Saudi 123 agreement focused exclusively on civilian nuclear energy under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards, underscore continued emphasis on peaceful programs rather than weapons capabilities. Discussions in South Korea and Japan center on alliance assurance and hedging options but have produced no verified weapons development timelines. The expiration of New START and broader nuclear modernization efforts have not altered ally restraint or triggered new programs capable of rapid breakout. Trader consensus at 94% for “No” aligns with the absence of confirmed triggers or accelerated proliferation paths in the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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